Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress on Tuesday that, in the view of the US’ spy agencies, Russian President Vladimir Putin was gearing up for a “prolonged” conflict in Ukraine, and was looking to establish control of Ukraine’s southern coast, from the Donbass in the east to Transnistria in the west.
“We assess President Putin is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond the Donbass,” Haines told a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Haines explained that according to her “indications,” Putin is seeking to extend Russian control from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics – which collectively make up the Donbass region – along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast to the breakaway province of Transnistria on the Moldovan border.
Doing so would be a major strategic win for Russia, and would leave Ukraine landlocked. However, Russia’s objectives in this regard are unclear. Upon sending troops into Ukraine in February, Putin stated that Russia’s military operation was intended to “demilitarize” Ukraine, to “denazify” its leadership, and to protect the Russian-speaking population of the Donbass republics, who have lived under legal and military persecution since 2014. Putin did not state any clear territorial end goals in Ukraine.