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Two scenarios of a collapse in oil prices

Два сценария обвала цен на нефть

A significant decline in oil prices has occurred including because of the closure of positions by traders before the Christmas holidays. For Russia, this situation won’t have big consequences if the collapse in oil prices will be short-term in nature, the Director of international sales at Otkritie Capital International in London Cyril Jankowski.

No serious negative effects and in that case, if the oil won’t settle in the corridor of 40-45 dollars per barrel, said Jankowski RIA Novosti.

In recent days, there has been continuous decline in oil prices. So, December 25 oil quotations Brent teetered at $ 50 per barrel, its lowest since August of 2017.

“Large-scale movement of oil we saw in 2008 and 2014, pretty short, so the question is, would we return to some levels. It will depend on American manufacturers, from which they will be the situation, the number of drilling etc. At these prices, many projects become unprofitable, so a new equilibrium will need to look for in the new year,” – said Jankowski.

As the expert noted, serious problems in Russia may appear, if the oil for a long time to gain a foothold in the range of 40-45 dollars per barrel.

“If these prices will become the new norm, then we will see that many of the Central Bank of the countries associated with commodity markets, not just Russia, will have to devalue its currency. Until we see a big movement, but this short” – he said, stressing that the present collapse of quotations associated with a General pessimism.

It is also the result of a trade us-China trade war. But the final point in this big game for a collapse in oil prices will put speculators who close out their long positions in the market and leave the cache, said Jankowski.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin saw no reason for extra meetings and international negotiations due to sharp collapse of prices for “black gold”. This, in particular, said press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov, noting that “the reason for some emergency meetings no.”

According to Peskov, the Russian authorities also don’t see a reason to hold consultations on this issue with Saudi Arabia or other OPEC members who are parties to the transaction OPEC+: “the effect of the agreements” in the framework of the agreement on reduction of volumes of extraction by which oil prices can be adjusted, “often has a delayed” character.

Peskov also said that the situation is under the control of the government.

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