Rollback of oil prices to levels below $ 80 per barrel may prove temporary. Moreover, in the next year, oil prices can exceed $ 100 per barrel, and it is likely that this growth will not stop, said the Minister of energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-Faleh.
The reason is the continuing uncertainty with the supply of black gold on the world market, which could lose up to 3 million barrels per day. The Kingdom warns it such amounts do not compensate.
The rally promotes the approach of a new anti-Iran sanctions and the fall in supply from other countries. American tough restrictions against Tehran on including energy exports, will come into force on 4 November. Countries-violators, who will remain with the Islamic Republic of commercial relations, are subject to the applicable secondary measures.
Experts warn: a sharp reduction of Iranian oil exports — the third-scale oil producer OPEC is facing serious global market turmoil. According to the cartel, in 2017, a daily production of Iran reached 3,87 million barrels. According to earlier estimates, the oil market risked losing up to 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day. Now, however, market participants fear twice as large volume, said in an analytical material, the RIA Novosti news Agency.
Whether the largest manufacturers to replace the shortfall of Iranian exports? “If necessary, we will reach 12 million barrels per day, I assure you. But if will disappear from the market 3 million barrels, we will not be able to reimburse this amount, so you’ll have to use the stocks of oil,” said al-Faleh.
To compensate for the deficit are unlikely to succeed and Russia — production is already close to the highest levels. As noted by the Minister of oil of Iran Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, neither Russia nor Saudi Arabia has “no spare capacity to produce more oil to replace supplies of Iran”.
The situation is complicated and the conflict the US with Saudi Arabia for the murder of journalist Jamal Casucci. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Riyadh’s lead on the case and did not rule out sanctions against those responsible for his death.
“Aggressive and unpredictable of American politics, trying to grab everything at once, regardless of either with partners or with its own long-term interests lead to such peak fluctuations, but they are objectively not beneficial to anybody, including Russia,” — says the Deputy Director of the Institute of oil and gas problems of RAS Alexey Mastepanov.
On the one hand, higher prices were good for the budget. Now all oil and gas revenues (those that are above the established budget trims at 40.8 per barrel) are sent to the national reserves.
However, there is a flip side to the coin. “Peak prices destabilisateur market, and getting large money in the budget in one or two months will be accompanied by a failure in the next six months,” explains Mastepanov.
For the economy important, not the peak value, and the level at which prices are able to gain a foothold for a long time. The problem is that the anticipated $ 100 per barrel is not justified by market conditions — neither demand nor supply. All this the result solely of geopolitics and actions of Washington aimed at the destruction of the equilibrium of the oil market.
In the case of strong distortions come into play the mechanisms of a competitive economy. Importers do not want to buy oil at inappropriately high price and begin to look for an alternative.
“The more expensive the oil, the stronger the desire something to replace it. It may be shale oil, to some extent gas, to some extent, electric vehicles. The higher the price, the more urgent substitutes. As a result of reduced demand, and this will eventually reduce prices,” says Sergei hestanov, Advisor to Director General for macroeconomics “Opening broker”.
Economically viable level of oil prices, experts have called the range of 65-80 per barrel. This level is most useful for the Russian economy as it stimulates to develop non-oil sector and not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Another thing is that Russia is now little that depends. “Unfortunately, objectively Russia has practically no influence on the unfolding in the moment, the destabilizing processes. It is important to understand them and prepare for them,” said Mastepanov.
The most interesting that Donald trump, whose policies lead to serious instability in the oil market, demands OPEC reduce in oil prices because the cost of gasoline and diesel in the US has caused the extremely negative attitude of the population to the actions of the Republicans.
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