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Trump begins to create new history in the middle East

Трамп начинает творить новую историю на Ближнем Востоке

The US President Donald trump, speaking at the first in 2019 meeting of his Cabinet, urged to stop military intervention in Syria and Afghanistan, accusing the allies that they “use” American military power. “All other countries had done over the past quite a long period of time — it gave us some soldiers, and then talked about it like it’s the end of the world, — said trump. — We subsidize their military billions, billions and billions of dollars that many, many times more than they are soldiers.” He added: “Our country should be respected”.

This promise is clear. After the announcement of the withdrawal of the army from Syria and reducing troop strength in Afghanistan, Washington found itself under a double blow. First: the allies did not support the imposed sanctions on Iran. Second: partners openly expressed dissatisfaction with trump’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria and that such a decision had been taken without consultation with them, pointing out the possibility of resuscitation of ISIS. “A sharp change of course the United States not only became a surprise for us. The threat of ISIS is still not resolved,” — commented on the situation in Berlin. But trump found the answer: “they All say that, because then ISIL will come to our country. Maybe this can happen but the probability is very small. But, you know, where else are they coming? In Iran, which hates ISIS even more than we do. They will come to Russia.”

Does this mean that trump has become his own and different interpretation of the reasons that forced Russia and Iran to be in Syria? It now says: “Syria was lost long ago. We’re not talking about great wealth. We’re talking about sand and death.” As for Afghanistan, the trump in this area otpasoval other situation. He said that his administration is doing “the right thing” in this country, conducts discussions with the Taliban and with other countries. But, as trump says, “there is India, there is Russia.” However, while in Afghanistan in 2001 are the us military. Former Russian Ambassador to the country Mikhail Konarovsky, analyzing the situation, concludes that it “continues to be mostly very tense”. Kabul could not provide internal strengthening for effective decisions it is faced with fundamental problems, the main of which are the achievement of peace and the solution of socio-economic problems.

The United States was in the “Afghan trap” and trying to shift the emphasis in regional support with Pakistan to India and even Russia, while recognizing the Taliban as a real force ruling, at least, on the division of power in Afghanistan. But the Taliban continue to insist on the withdrawal of American troops from the country, carry out active combat activities. To date, according to various estimates outside real government control is from almost 40 to almost 60% of the country. Trump realized that the triumphant reports from his generals from Afghanistan, he will not wait and of all the options available alternatives to chose one — a gradual withdrawal of American troops. And attacked the military. He expressed dissatisfaction with the former Minister of defense of Jim Mattis and other senior military officials in connection “with the endless war in Afghanistan,” hit them with criticism for the many failures.

Trump has embarked on a serious revision of the concept of Syria and Afghanistan, and may be much wider, further and deeper. It is primarily about the Iranian U.S. policy, which, in our opinion, must undergo certain changes in connection with their rejection of the policy of concentration of military in the region. On the one hand, Washington would seek to engage in open or closed-door negotiations with Tehran in order to achieve the signing of a new agreement on the nuclear program on their terms. On the other, will intensify the strategy of indirect actions around Iran, but such a level to slow down the reorientation of Iran for Russia and China, exposing before him as a carrot the prospect of the possibility of lifting the sanctions. So trump is forcing foreign players to define their own line of conduct, in particular, the European partners who fall outside the “corridor decisions”, the walls of which are arranged by the Americans.

The US presence in Syria and Afghanistan gave them the leverage to influence the course of the conflict. But not any more. Specific solutions in this area and there still are discussions about the fact that, as stated by the foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov, “will result in a declared trump, the US withdrawal from Syria.” However, including Moscow, are faced with the choice, with whom and how to proceed in the middle East and what will happen then in this region of the world. U.S. Secretary of state Michael Pompeo from 8 to 15 January, begins middle East tour. He will visit Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The great game continues.

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