Tokyo has plans to return “their” land by force of arms. If the plan is “Great Japan to the Urals” was not canceled. This opinion was expressed by doctor of military Sciences, Colonel-General Anatoly Zaitsev in his article for the “Military-industrial courier”.
According to Colonel-General, a possible scenario looks like this:
Japan, taking advantage of the multiple superiority in manpower and weaponry, does a sudden blow to Sakhalin and the Southern Kuriles;
— The US will in the side, urging Russia not to use nuclear weapons, but China likely will take a neutral position;
— the claim of Japan to the Kuril Islands, with reference to the Treatise on trade within the borders of 1855 unchanged; knowing that these Islands there is interest from the United States, Tokyo will go to them, and the next day there will be American military bases.
As proof that the script is not fantastic, he gave the following facts.
Japanese children are taught not historical facts and myths. In the Second world war or the great East Asian war, Japan lost, but the Emperor stopped her and remained undefeated. In the sanctuaries, Yasukuni placed 14 memorial tablets of war criminals is the pride of the nation, to liberate Asia from the colonialists by the European countries. Japan does not go from thinking to collect all eight corners of the world under one roof, considering it a divine purpose. There is a reverence to the pre-war, aggressive, militaristic education of citizens, and hence the desire for the military buildup, says Zaitsev.
If we analyze the military spending of 25 developed countries over the last decade in terms of per person and per square kilometer, Japan will be in fifth place. Moreover, if in the early 2000s, the military budget of the country has added on average 0.8% per year, in 2014, it has tripled and continues to grow.
According to Zaitsev, the economic potential of Japan is now equal to 61% of the US production per capita is even higher, and all enterprises — both private and public — have mobilization tasks. This means that with a population of 126.5 million people under the gun to deliver every tenth is quite real, says Colonel-General. Plus in Japan constantly being introduced the idea that nuclear war is terrible, but not so dangerous for the state as a whole is not fatal.
Under the Constitution, Japan should have only the self-defense Forces. But if you look at their structure, including the army, air force, Navy and intelligence services, we will see a well-equipped army, says the analyst.
Soon Japan is going to buy U.S. fifth generation fighter F-35 (the total number to 42 units), capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and the plans also 1626 fighters, equipping destroyers SAM SM-3 with a range of lesions up to thousands of kilometers, modernization and re-equipment of anti-aircraft missiles Patriot (PAC-3) missile from two trains, the purchase of tilt-rotor osprey V-27 for landing on remote Islands, lists of birds.
In the far Eastern theater of operations, according to General-Colonel, we can oppose the Japanese little. In Russia there are 25 submarines, 10 warships ocean marine and coastal zones 32. Japan — 66 ships, including five destroyers, helicopter carriers with a continuous flight deck and a hangar for aircraft like the F-35B, 18 submarines, of which a third are new. There is also a 7 missile, airborne 8, 25 mine-sweeping boats, 5 sea tankers, 2 ship, 2 search and rescue ship, 1 minelayer, 3 BBC and 2 small landing, 180 140 planes and helicopters.
Whether Japan sees itself as a nation in the XXI century, what the implications of this should be done in Russia?
— I largely agree with the conclusions of Colonel-General Zaitsev, — said the Deputy of the state Duma of the third and fourth convocations, a retired Colonel Viktor Alksnis. — Japan always had a strong revanchist sentiments. Given the mentality of the Japanese defeat in the Second world, they are very painful subject. And really, their defense Forces today represent a powerful army, which is superior to the Russian force in the far East.
Since the USSR it was assumed that potential enemies in this area we have. We proceeded from the fact that, in any event, Japan will remain neutral, and our main threat in the West. Therefore, the grouping that was available in the far East at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, all subsequent years degraded. Today, I believe it is a dutuyu size, and really resist the Japanese self-defense Forces is unlikely.
Yes, we have “the last argument of kings” — nuclear weapons. Obviously, the Russian leadership hopes that in the end this factor will be decisive. But I remind you that 100 years ago in the Russian Empire, too, were all convinced that “pathetic” Japan we simply throwing caps. However, the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905 demonstrated that it is not.
You need to consider that Japan is today in the field of Economics is much greater than the Russia, and the Japanese society imbued with the ideas of revanchism. This means in Russian-Japanese relations may be a variety of options.
“SP”: — What does the Kremlin do in this situation?
It is necessary to proceed from real military threats. Today in the West, with the exception of Estonia, none of us territorial claims does not show. Yes, Kiev’s actions now represent the greatest threat to Russia. But the second biggest threat, I believe, comes from Japan.
Japanese threat can not be ignored under the pretext that the far East is far. Let me remind you, even in the worst years of the great Patriotic war — in 1941 and 1942, we still kept it powerful group. A part of this group we sent for the salvation of Moscow in autumn 1941, and it played a crucial role in the counter-offensive near the capital. But throughout the war, despite the fact that the far Eastern parts were urgently needed at the front, we didn’t touch them. Because, despite the agreement with Japan the neutrality, we felt threatened by the Kwantung army.
So we have to strengthen the grouping in the far East, shipped to the newest military equipment, and restore the defense system, which was established in Soviet times. Notice, in those days, Tokyo to head would not come to try to solve the territorial problem by military means.
“SP”: — Why in this situation we talk with Tokyo about the possible transfer of the Kuril Islands?
— The Russian leadership, I believe, itself triggered the revival of revanchist sentiments by rash action on the issue of the Kuril Islands and sign a peace Treaty with Tokyo. We quietly lived without this Treaty 70 years, and anybody from us does not require it. But Vladimir Putin has decided to revive the issue and thereby committed, in my opinion, a very serious mistake.
— Pre-war Japan wanted to create an East Asian community under its aegis, and the then military leadership of the country really was aggression on the mainland — said the head of the Center for Japanese studies, Institute of Far Eastern studies Valery Kistanov. — This was done under the slogan of liberation of fellow Asians from the colonial rule of white people. But this slogan did not prevent the Japanese atrocities in China and the Philippines as well as atrocities of the Nazis in the Soviet Union.
At that time Japan had Grand plans: Tokyo hoped to subjugate and Indonesia, and Australia — Australia then lived in fear of the landing of Japanese troops. Had the Japanese plans to seize the Soviet Far East. All of this was “Union of the eight corner of the world under one roof”.
But you have to understand it all collapsed in 1945, Japan signed the act of unconditional surrender. Yes, the current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to end those burdens that have been imposed on the country after the Second world war. Plus in some measure to make Japan more independent — including in relations with the United States, its main ally. But a military Treaty between Tokyo and Washington is still here, not going anywhere in the foreseeable future — it will only grow stronger.
Abe wants to feel more comfortable in the framework of this agreement, but it has not been very successful. The Prime Minister also wants to bring Japan into the international arena — it has a slogan of Japan is back, with whom he again came to power in 2012. Abe believes that under the previous administrations in Tokyo lost much of the foreign influence because of the burdens imposed by the occupiers — that is, the same America.
Abe was ambitious: to revise article 9 of the Constitution, which forbids Japan to have Armed forces and use the threat of use of military force in resolving international conflicts. Abe wanted to revise the article in the root, but in the end realized that it was too difficult.
In Japan now there is no militarist sentiment that was before the war. Most Japanese people used to live in peace and tranquility, under the American umbrella, including the military. However, Abe is fully their plans did not leave, and now wants to amend the 9th article only one paragraph: the fact that the current self-defense Forces are legitimate. Because many in Japan believe that because the Constitution actually forbids the army, and the current self-defense Forces are not legitimate.
This item is the main goal that Abe will try to reach for the remaining period of tenure until 2021. But I’m not sure that even he will succeed. For the amendment need to address both chambers of the Japanese Parliament to convene the referendum. Yes, the ruling party, Abe a majority in both houses, but there is no guarantee that in a referendum the Japanese will vote for the amendment. Public opinion polls show that the votes are 50 to 50.
So talking about a militaristic frenzy in Japan, or about the militaristic orientation of the mentality of modern Japanese people, I would not. Rather, they want to be less involved in foreign conflicts, not to participate in wars.
There are, of course, certain political circles, singing to the militaristic past of Japan. They say it was a war for their country and Emperor. And the temple of Yasukuni — the symbol of those circles. I just want to clarify that in the temple no one was buried there to honor the souls of Japanese soldiers and officers who died on all fronts of Japan’s history. There are 2.5 million people. Almost all of them died outside the country — they died when waged war with China in the late nineteenth century, and when the war with Russia.
Yes, among these names of 14 war criminals, their souls are also worshipped. This temple is, again, a symbol of Japanese militarism — that’s the way he is perceived in the countries that suffered from Japanese aggression. And when this temple is visited by Japanese leaders — and they do it regularly — it causes an uproar, especially in China.
Shinzo Abe is considered in these countries, “the hawk”. Notice that Abe had the daring to visit the Shrine of Yasukuni in 2013, but the Chinese quickly made him understand that Japan-China relations is a serious thing, and more to the temple, Abe walks. Sends only to a Shinto offering tree masakaki.
I was in this temple is very beautiful in Japanese. It has a Museum, and there I had some questions. In the Museum, for example, exhibited a Japanese fighter plane Mitsubishi A6M Zero — it is widely used in world war II. Next on the pedestal is a monument to kamikaze: the pilot in the form. I badly imagine, that in Germany was exposed to the Messerschmitt Bf.109 and the pilot of the Luftwaffe in Nazi uniform. In Europe, this monument would have caused a lot of protests, and in Japan — please.
All this, Yes, there are in Japan. But some broad militaristic capture the thoughts and mentality, ideas that can revive power — in Japan not exactly.
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