In the United States gave a forecast of Putin’s seizure of Belarus according to the Crimean scenario.
Smart noted that Lukashenko is caught in a difficult situation when he made a step towards the West, at the same time falling out with the President of Russia.
Russian Federation can easily capture Belarus according to the Crimean scenario. Disagreements between President Alexander Lukashenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin could accelerate the development.
This opinion was expressed by U.S. political scientist, Director of non-governmental organizations For a free Ukraine Jason Smart.
According to him, in case of aggravation of the situation between Moscow and Minsk, the Belarusian army and security forces will not be able to prevent the invasion of Russia.
Smart noted that Lukashenko is caught in a difficult situation when he made a step towards the West, at the same time falling out with the President of Russia.
“He wanted to negotiate with Putin. Maybe it’s just a tactic. But it’s a big risk. If so play with Russia, Putin can’t take a joke… There is a very serious possibility that Russia could take over the country”, – said the expert.
The analyst said that Russia will not be difficult to conduct a military aggression against Belarus, as Minsk could not be sure of the loyalty of its security forces. “They all worked very long with the FSB, the GRU. Now many Belarusians studying in Moscow, in the Institute of the Russian FSB,” explained Smart.
“If there’s a problem, Belarusian military and security services are simply not ready to answer it,” he added. – “Everything will be “in the Crimea. There is a serious possibility. In Belarus, a lot of citizens have Russian passports… If tomorrow there is a conflict, Putin will find a reason to sahatit power,” – said the analyst.
As it was reported, Lukashenka has blamed Russia of unwillingness to the formation of a Union state with Belarus.
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