“To lose my job by September can up to 20 million people”: impact of pandemic, which we had no idea
As the last four months have changed our future? Not the future like to paint futurists and future the ordinary person — job, home, country. To answer this question is trying documentary series “New reality”, who on Thursday was released on the video service “Kinopoisk HD”
Documentary mini-series “the New reality” — a joint project Studio “Amur waves” and Forbes magazine. The series is filmed as a dialogue between two people — a man who suddenly found themselves in quarantine last spring, and his companion from August 2020. These two heroes is the founder of “the Amur waves” Alexander Organov and his co-host, Director and screenwriter Igor Makarov. To understand how much in the last months has changed the surrounding reality, they are helping economists, businesspeople and ordinary people whose lives this year have been divided into “before March” and “after him.”
They reflect on five key topics — about work, family, medicine, debt, and second wave of the epidemic. And what conclusions come:
How many people lost and still lose their jobs?
Alexey Zakharov, Superjob founder: “According to our estimates, up to 20 million people in Russia losing their jobs before September. That is a lot, it is almost a third of the economically active population, it is very heavy story. There are many people that are de facto already dismissed, but still do not know about. They will learn about it gradually as it will be removed restrictions, and businesses that didn’t work at all, try to start to work. But a large part of them can not work for completely different reasons.”
Boris Zarkov: “We’ve reduced a lot of people. I can’t say exactly, but 30 percent is probably accurate. There are, of course, such cognitive dissonance is that you create a company about values, about people, and then external circumstances are forcing you to reduce…
Now to support restaurants every month we have to add a huge amount. Just take the money from the account and bring in a restaurant to pay people salary. But after three months, I have not, so I just went now and sold my apartment.”
Was it possible to create a safety cushion in case of a crisis?
Artem Temirov, co-founder of the coffee cooperative “Black”: “we had a very small airbag that would not be enough even for April. After all, there is the opportunity to either profit from the business to take themselves and distribute as profits, or accumulate a safety cushion in order that in case such a situation the money was. But most people, opening a business want the business to develop.
Economy black day when you have to have the airbag, it looks like that you have throughout the year to defer all the profit that you have without investing all the money in the business. No business can accumulate a safety cushion, which involves complete shutdown of the economy.”
Boris Zarkov: “Two months is $10 million a Year — $50-60 million none no airbags, we’re not drug trade.
I guess I could come over to his partners and say, “Guys, let’s put 30-50 million”. They tell me: “why?”. I would have told them: “You know, suddenly, the epidemic”. You know what they answer me: “Epidemic is a force majeure. In force majeure’s nothing no one nobody pays. The state takes all the costs themselves.”
If the generation of 30-year-old the chance to receive a normal pension?
Yevgeny Gontmakher, economist: “Say so, the pension you will receive, no one is going to abolish the institution. The question is, what pension you will receive. Our current so-called pension formula pension calculated at the time of exit it very difficult, it is made on the basis of points. If you are working, you your employer to pay contributions is 22% of your salary. You will receive a minimum minimum. Now, too, technically, there is a certain minimum pension, which is equal to the subsistence level. Now it is about 8000-9000 rubles, depending on the region.
No progress in increasing the pensions is not, then there are no miracles. And for gen 30 years, for younger generations, this term most likely is. So she is talking about? That, well, let’s just say, retirement is not to live.
In the United States, for example, due to this payment (from your employer) you get about $1000 dollars a month. For us it is a lot of money, but in the US people can’t live decently on the money. But the man has mandatory participation in the corporate pension systems, together with the employer, pays from their wages together with the employer. And thirdly, he goes to the Bank and opens a long-term retirement account 20, 30, 40 years. We have no such accounts. You come into our banks, want to open a term Deposit, a Deposit, how much you can access? Well, for five years. You for twenty years we have a Deposit will not open.
So from those three sources people in the United States receives a pension. And it is not $1,000 and $2,500 and $ 3,000. This is a more or less decent amount of money.”
Will it change medicine?
Evgeny Gontmakher: “we now Have a contribution IRD should be paid in the amount of 5.1% from your earnings. For the non-working people (unemployed, pensioners, children) pay the subjects of the Federation: budgets and regions pay to the MLA. This money is not radically enough though, because we have low salaries. To the plan of the shaft to comply, impose restrictions on the time of visit. You know, even a therapist, in Moscow, it was 12 minutes to the reception person?
We have a state that is OMS plus budget spending on health care 3.5% of GDP for many years. Varies very slightly around this amount, but it does not increase.
In Italy, Spain, Germany, France, the UK, the government spends on health care 6%, 7%, 8% of GDP. And if you consider per capita, given that their per capita GDP is higher than ours in 1,5-2 times, then you will realize that the gap in the financing of health care in us at times. We highly flawed all these decades from the point of view of health, it is underfunded quite radically. I believe in half twice just underfunded
OMS did not justify the expectations assigned to it in the early 90s. After all, if it is an insurance system, it at least needs to sofinansirovanija for these contributions. If us salaries were two to three times more in the country, and the contribution would have been of 5.1%, as it is now, maybe then it would be possible to talk about insurance. What you need to do? It is necessary not just to improve the financing of health times two. It is necessary to make a budget! Because the budget model allows you to operate all of the country’s budget and to allocate at least 5% of GDP.”
Why not the ruble falls?
Andrei Movchan, the economist: “Russia is in crisis and out of the sinusoid has at least since 2012 — almost eight years. And this is probably with us for long, certainly not for a year or two or three. Russia — a country with a weak and poorly organized economy, which is stagnating, if not falling, is highly dependent on hydrocarbon prices and very badly processed, and the income we get from imports.
If oil falls in price, and we need to continue to buy women’s underwear, children’s socks, televisions, refrigerators, tube for droppers, fertilizers for agriculture abroad (because we produce very little other than oil themselves) is reminiscent of little dollars coming, and we need a lot of dollars in order to buy all this. The demand for dollars is large and we need to spend them rubles and, accordingly, the ruble is falling in value. So of course, when the price of oil falls, the ruble needs to fall in price.
Stopped business, stopped salaries, stopped payments, people have remained in the hands of a few rubles, they import the ruble stopped spending, they stopped to go abroad, to spend the dollars abroad, that is, to buy dollars for rubles. The investment cycle has stopped completely, businesses stopped investing, and then stopped to buy equipment in dollars, so the ruble became scarce and dollars are not required, so the ruble has fallen so much.
This crisis has hit all the low-paid categories of citizens, because the restrictive measures slapped on their capabilities.
It’s not like there was a global recession. In 2020 probably will be a technical recession, but it is due to this single drop. And in 2021 we all have the feeling that everything will go back to normal, everything will be to develop, to grow, a lot of money in the world, special problems, there are none. This is not 2008 and certainly not 1929. For peace, for normal economies is a bump where the car will jump and go on.”
Who will be in this crisis? And not only him
Andrei Movchan: “the Stereotype that Russia has incredibly low taxes are bad, just like any stereotype. On the other hand, again, what taxes are we talking? High any Russian income taxes? No. Very low. Is there a high Russian taxes on labor? Very high. If you invested in some shares of “Rosneft” and the dividends, the taxes are very small. That is, for our rental of elite taxation is very low. As for people who earn, for example, salaries in enterprises, taxation high, especially for those who have a small salary. As for the people who are building their business in Russia, taxation at best high and you can find a lot of places where it will be significantly lower. Taxation in this sense is positive for the rental members of the elite and it is a negative for entrepreneurs and for employees.”
Why not spend the national welfare Fund?
Andrei Movchan: “There are a lot of pods and there are a lot of possibilities. If you need money, you spend it, well, as funny as that sounds from different sources. You can, for example, to increase an internal debt and to spend from it, you can increase the debt to the Central Bank and spending of these equity money, you can reallocate the budget. So ask the question why not spend the national welfare Fund, well, what’s the difference, roughly speaking, in the pocket now the government climbs?
We must ask the question, how much it spends. Had to spend 10-12 trillion. Why is [spent] conventionally, two times less? Because I proceeded from the idea what to do so that was good, and the government comes from the idea that we should make sure that the patient is not dead”.
Boris Zarkov: “Well, the money came from, now they’re gone, but it’s money, nothing wrong with that. There is something to eat. Eat, where to sleep and everything is fine. Team lives, we’re moving, thinking about what to do if ever it for a very long time.
And I even, you know, sat thinking as I look at this situation in a year or two? I realized that I’m going to look at it with gratitude for the fact that external circumstances forced him to move forward.”
Artem Temirov: “I am sure that for thousands of people in the country will understand the value of mutual aid and volunteer work, when you go to help people that don’t know, and help them not only money but the time.
I see today the usual, and this endless stream of life, when you have only the job and the house exploded, because it penetrated this reality with a huge number of problems which now can not escape, not a single resident of Russia. I think there is a chance that there will appear a third part of the life in addition to work and family.”
Evgeny Gontmakher: “We must change the management themselves. Our current government has become, in fact, in a large Corporation. And any Corporation which main goal is profit maximization. Look at our government. It maximizes their profit. We, as people who are employed in this state, trying to minimize payouts and social security.
We talked about payments in a crisis. It is a political issue. We need to make sure that the state has taken a slightly different place in our society. State, a strong state is necessary, of course, but it should not more than to serve our public interest. It’s a big political challenge.”
Andrei Movchan: “first we need to create competition in power more or less any cost. It is very strong, in my opinion, adoption. I understand that it is too strong for Russia today. We need competition in government, we need elite groups competed for votes and not for the support of a narrow elite of the metropolis, which considers itself the colonizers and who are using this country. We need to have three, four Federal forces and a sufficient number of regional powers, which between them could seriously compete for power and each other to change anyway. It instantly generates improved quality control, it is proven thing in 100% of cases”.
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