October 1, consumer loans will become unavailable for millions of Russians, in the best case they will have to agree to high.
To deal with the debt load of the population, consumer loans will do even more. From October 1 the Central Bank will raise the rate of redundancy on loans to borrowers who already spend on payments on all your obligations more than half of income. According to estimates of the joint credit Bureau (OKB), it will cost banks an additional 70 to 110 billion.
Now, according to the Bureau, in a country of 15.7% of borrowers — nine million people — half the salary immediately carry to the Bank. According to the National Bureau of credit histories, their slightly less — 11,3%. Another 8% of borrowers spend on payments on all current loans from 40 to 50% of income that is located in the border zone.
The calculations are based on the data that bureaus receive from the creditors themselves, and those of the borrowers. In the NCB, for example, analyzed information from four thousand banks, microfinance organizations and credit consumer cooperatives. But knowing how easy it is to draw in the income statement the correct number, we can assume that these borrowers much more.
As told to “Rosbalt”, the marketing Director of National Bureau of credit histories (NBCH) Alexey Volkov, the last years, the share of heavily indebted borrowers is reduced: in 2015, they were more than 15%, in 2017 — to 13.6% last year to 12.5%.
“Many lenders a long time to consider the indicator of debt burden and with great care to lend to customers with high values. Now the regulator is simply formalizes an already established market of retail lending practices. This means that borrowers with a high debt burden indicator, as before, most likely will not be available long-term loans. Short-term loans for which the risk is often kompensiruet high rate, these customers will be able to count with good credit history”, — said Volkov.
According to him, the method by which the Central Bank proposes to calculate the indicator of debt burden, would be to consider credit history. This means that the regulator will receive information about all the loans of the borrower taken in different banks. As for income, the Bank will rely on information that the borrower provided when you make a loan, hoping that the Bank was verified.
Measures aimed at reducing debt burden are likely to lead to its increase, says the associate Director on Bank ratings “Expert RA” Catherine Shurigina.
“Increase in reserve for consumer loans to borrowers with a high debt load, will require from banks more capital to cover risks on such loans. Accordingly, the number of banks may reduce lending to customers from this segment or to raise rates to compensate for their costs, which, however, will lead to increased debt burden of borrowers. In this case, if the cooling of consumer credit in the segment of borrowers with a high debt burden will not happen in the future, the Bank may introduce protective regulations in the granting of loans to such customers”, — says Shurigina.
According to experts, to formally reduce the debt burden, banks can begin to lend for the longer term for the “blurring” of payments for a long period. “The stagnation of the real incomes of the population this may lead to accumulation of credit risks in the long term,” she said.
Director of the Banking Institute HSE Vasily Solodkov considers that the Central Bank thus dealing with the symptoms but not the cause. “From the moment that the Crimea became ours in Russia reduced real incomes and GDP growing in the range of statistical error. People who have not enough money to buy what you need, find the exit in lending. Such a model could work in the conditions of growing economy. But it is not growing. Economic development Ministry fears that people most of their income will be given to banks to pay interest on earlier loans. Hence the idea to reduce the volume of consumer lending. The easiest way is to increase the redundancy rate for new loans to indebted borrowers,” says Solodkov.
The rule will apply only to new loans. For those that already taken, the percentage of reservation remains the same. “The banks in this case remains the choice either to raise rates for such borrowers, or the General duty not to give” — said the source of “Rosbalt”. As a result, the rates for them can be a few percent higher than normal.
For many Russians, the new rule will close the window of refinancing, because if the payments on all loans consume much more than 50% of income to refinance them at a lower interest rate will be impossible. However, now the stakes rose again, and to refinance the existing loans are not yet profitable.
Instead of curing the economy, the Central Bank and Ministry of economic development treat the symptoms. But the best of them struggle with the debt load people will not, said Solodkov. “They take loans, because they do not have enough money. For many years people could not afford any major acquisitions. Now when they solve their problems with banks, the Central Bank begins to struggle with consumer crediting. But the people will not cease to need the money. They will go to a microfinance institution, and will take the debt is not under 15% and under 200%,” — said the expert.
That banks carefully checked borrowers and have stopped issuing loans to all and Sundry, talking 2014. But, judging by the Central Bank imposed restrictions not too successfully. According to Solodkova, banks just want to survive. “After an extensive cleaning when the CB packs were withdrawn licenses from private banks left a legal entity. They were only more risky instrument — consumer credit. Now this is the only way to stay afloat,” he said.
Another question, as the Central Bank, introducing an increased reserve ratio, is physically able to verify the indicator of debt burden of a client. Because proof of income is still possible to buy or ask the employer to “draw” the desired amount.
“This is a real problem, and how to deal with it — not yet invented. The severity of the laws, as we know, kompensiruet the optionality of their execution”, — said Solodkov.
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