The results of the single voting day can be the beginning of change in Russia. It is not excluded that dramatically.
The ruling party and its phony “independents” have won in most regions. It would seem that “United Russia” needs to rest on our laurels. But experts believe that it is a Pyrrhic victory and the government will pay. Maybe not today, but tomorrow.
Alexander Kynev, a political scientist:
“The General conclusion of the elections is that the voter demand and the proposal is on the political market, do not correspond to each other. The political system artificially frozen party behave inert and play in the giveaway, and the “smart vote” was a vote “for”, it was a vote against. It obviously was built on the principle that positive characters do not and we are holding a referendum on distrust. This is the General mood of the voters as a whole didn’t even know who to vote.
The political system is unhealthy, it does not reflect public sentiment and public demand. There are a huge number of people who are not represented at all by anyone. They have their candidates, not their parties. The political system does not give them the opportunity to defend their rights.
It is a sign of absolute illness. This is an abscess which will accumulate, and I think that if it is not made any steps for the admission of the representatives of this segment of political life, it will end for power is very bad.”
Ilya Graschenkov, Director of the Center for the development of regional policy:
“My feeling — and something snapped in Russian society after the elections. It is not clear what, but after publication of the results there is some feeling that the decision was made, which will have very far-reaching consequences.
Technically, everything is beautiful: the Pro-government candidates ratings of 60-90%, no second rounds. The opposition confounded, the people went to the polls, preferring to vote the collection of cones. Everything is as before, with the amendment that this is the wrong electoral behavior for a country with drastic social and economic decline.
What is happening suggests that the current situation in public policy does not meet the needs of the voter. Where systemic opposition gets some kind of result, it is obvious that it is only because of the interests of local elites. KPRF, LDPR, “Fair Russia” — this is a franchise that represents a particular regional elite.
But the elections in Moscow is a very interesting case. Even in terms of total Stripping with the power of labor held the majority in Parliament. In addition, it is not the first time represented the political party “United Russia”. This situation is unique to our political system.
I believe that we really woke up in a different era. Also I think that this trend will soon be perceived by the regions: parliamentary elections in 2020 — 2021-m years can pass in Moscow scenario”.
Maxim Zharov, the political scientist, the sociologist:
“The election results we have seen achieved with a maximum voltage, maybe even with the strain of administrative resources, and therefore, to say that is all right with the authorities, I would not. The authorities have big problems if she had to overwork.
It is no secret that all the results in gubernatorial campaigns, in General, achieved by these administrative-dependent voters, at the expense of the state. I think that in the near future it will backfire in the ratings of trust in the authorities.
Nothing fundamentally new in these elections I do not see, but see the deterioration and deepening of the problems that we had before. Parties of the parliamentary opposition must prepare for a very tough confrontation with the Federal government, because their results, especially “devastating” result of the liberal democratic party in the Khabarovsk territory — is a serious failure for the Federal government. The Kremlin will do everything possible to minimize this failure and to get the parliamentary opposition parties to re-submit. We already see now in the recent statement of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on elections to the Moscow city Duma, he called in the last Duma of the Communist party and “Fair Russia” fifth column and supporters of Navalny. Zhirinovsky is all very well understood — he understood what danger threatens him for such a triumph in the Khabarovsk region and is already trying somehow to maneuver.
As for the “success of the Communist party in Moscow”, candidates winning in districts in the Moscow city Duma, the party often “not their”. These candidates have the party a very distant relation, and therefore for the Communist party now is also the moment of truth. The Communist party is ready to do to protect their winners, their right to speak on behalf of dissatisfied voters, or, as before, she is ready for any increased pressure from the Federal government to “lay down” under this authority and to do what she wants?”
Alexei Makarkin, first Vice-President of the Center for political technologies:
“In the last election, when the four regions have been second rounds in the gubernatorial election, three of them were acting governors, whom the Kremlin is not promptly replaced. In the fourth region, in the Primorsky Krai, was the acting head, who all suddenly began to advocate pension reform. These were the reasons why they didn’t win a single round.
Now to the candidates of the acting governors in the Kremlin began to approach more closely and change them more active. Almost any doubt that the acting will be able to win, leads to the fact that it is replaced by a new one. Here at Astrakhan interim something didn’t work, and it is rapidly changed, came a new.
As a result, the voter was faced with a choice: I had to vote either for obscure acting, which so far does not make mistakes, the pension reform does not promote, something, that helps people. In General, for such acting, with which the voter until the “honeymoon”. Either — vote for a “pig in a poke”. In the end, the voters decided to choose those with whom you are little acquainted, and to whom not any serious complaints.
Therefore, the elections were calm enough for the authorities. There were several regions where there was tension, waiting for the second round, but there are also voters decided not to risk it. In comparison with the previous elections in the whole country of power was easy.
There are, however, Khabarovsk Krai, where elections to representative bodies of defeated the liberal democratic party. But there the situation is simple. Yet there was the Governor from “ER”, vote for candidates from “ER.” Now the Governor from the liberal democratic party, and vote for the liberal democratic party. Just in the eyes of the people changed the ruling party. Therefore, to draw far-reaching conclusions on the Khabarovsk would be wrong.
Well, Moscow is the most interesting. There have been gordumu different opposition candidates, thanks to the “democratic mobilization”, pronounced a protest vote. In the capital did not register many opposition candidates were crackdown, arrests, courts. It all played a role. But the consequences of the protest vote may be not the ones people expect. The government retained a majority in the city Duma and, probably, will attract to his side a part of the new deputies that were elected with the support of the opposition. Even the new members can be revealed from an unexpected quarter.
On the other hand, Moscow is a city “different”, polarized. The absence of liberals in the city Duma was an anomaly, now there’s a representation from the liberal parties.
September 9 we woke up in the same country, and went to sleep, but with some lessons and, in particular, with the Kremlin’s reaction that understands that regions need new administrators.”
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.
