In the next three years the Russian economy will grow three times slower than the developing countries, to reduce poverty by half, according to the may decree of Vladimir Putin until 2024 will not.
This forecast gives the world Bank published on Tuesday the report on the prospects of the Russian economy.
e the Success of Russia’s diversification of the economy remain “modest,” write the experts of the Bank: for the last 4 years its place in global production chains has not changed. 59% of exports are hydrocarbons, 10% – on metals and only 7.6% refers to products of high added value – machinery and equipment.
The manufacturing base continues to shrink: employment in industrial sectors 2013 decreased by 3.5%, while agriculture fell by 15%.
At such input in the 2018-20 biennium Russia’s GDP will grow by 1.5% to 1.8% (against 4.6 per cent in developing countries on average) that will not significantly increase the incomes of the poorest segment of the population.
Now 12.4% of Russians, or 18.1 million people, live below the official poverty with a monthly income less 10444 rubles.
By 2024, in the area of poverty will remain one in ten in Russia (10.2 percent), predicts WB: it is 1.5 times more than required by the may decree.
Although there are assistance programs for the poor, 4 of 5 rubles allocated for this purpose, dissolve into nowhere, only 20% of the total sinks, calculated WB.
A new blow to the wallets will turn the VAT increase: it will take another 1% of real disposable incomes, falling 11% during the crisis.
Being a consumption tax, VAT, as a rule, has very poor, reminiscent of the WB: but this effect will smooth out tax concessions including food.
They remain the main reserve of the government, which can be used to further enhance revenues, warned in the Bank in order to “mobilize the resources”, the authorities can cancel preferential rates, as well as to achieve further increase in excise duties on tobacco products.
To accumulate reserves, Russia forced the external factors that, as noted by the world Bank, “remain largely unfavourable”.
“The possible extension of sanctions and geopolitical tensions are broadcast in high uncertainty, which pushes domestic demand”, the report reads: “cocktail” is added to a trade war and the tightening of monetary policy in the West.
A growing share of the state in the economy also brings additional risks primarily in obligations of the banking system, which, according to the world Bank, remains a “consistently weak”. The share of bad assets on their balance reaches 10.4%, which is twice higher than the average for the BRICS (4.6 per cent).
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