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“The Syrian knot” interwoven interests of many countries

В «сирийском узле» сплелись интересы многих стран

Russian-Iranian cooperation in Syria — rather, it is tactical, not strategic partnership, it may be subject to significant transformation depending on the geopolitical interests of the parties, concludes that the Lebanese publication Lebanon24.

The publication notes that on this point, as the recent armed clashes between Syrian and Iranian forces in Hama, and close coordination between Russia and Israel, which never ceases attacks on Iranian military facilities in Syria. All links in a chain, but the events themselves cannot be considered an exception to the rules that are written in the present time. It is obvious that this is a deliberate policy, involving the determination of the Russian authorities to weaken the influence of Iran in the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR).

Analyzing the events of recent days, the publication concludes that there is no doubt that relations between Moscow and Tehran are already in a new stage of development in connection with the conflict in the region, which, besides Russia, also involve Iran, Israel, Turkey and the United States.

Despite the fact that Russia may put Damascus in last year’s anti-aircraft missile system s-300 to counter the attacks of Israel, accusing the latter of involvement in the crash of a Russian transport plane and the death of 25 people, the recent Israeli air strikes on Iranian formations in the vicinity of Damascus, cause of the Islamic Republic of suspicions that Russia is working closely with Israel, intentionally violating work systems s-300. At least this statement was made head of the Committee on national security and foreign policy of the Shura Council of Iran Heshmatollah Falahatpishe, noting in particular that between Moscow and tel Aviv are stable coordination during an Israeli missile strike on Syria.

The Lebanese publication asks the rhetorical question, why the air defense system s-300 every time is not involved and does not interfere with the pilots of Israel to fly over Syrian territory? And itself responds: Russia cares about Israel’s security, which is no secret for any of the parties to the conflict.

Earlier this month, Deputy foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov gave an extensive interview to “si-EN-EN” (CNN), which stated that the term “allies”, in relation to Russia and Iran, he wouldn’t have to use when it comes to the situation in Syria. According to him, Russia in its actions in Syria has always been considered a “reliable protection of the state of Israel.”

With reference to the Syrian well-informed Lebanese sources, the publication notes that the Russian authorities deliberately implement a policy of weakening the Iranian influence in Syria — and this process lasts from about late October — early November 2018. So, for example, indicate frequent visits to Russia, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and leaked bit by bit in the “public field” information about the consensus on this issue between Russia and the United States. Also it is noticeable and directly in the fields of war, where Russian advisers will certainly follow it, where are those or other Iranian military units. These Syrian sources referenced in the publication, stressed that at the moment Russia is perceived as a force that can limit the Iranian presence in Syria to provide greater stability in the region.

As noted Lebanon24, the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed primarily at ensuring Russian interests in the region that is of strategic importance for Russia.

So can Russia to sacrifice the interests of Iran, although in need of the Iranian armed forces to support stability in Syria, asks the newspaper?

A definite answer to this question is no, because consider cooperation coordination of certain actions only on Syria is one thing, but achieving the geopolitical balance of interests of different States — the challenge is quite different. In this field Russia has to play not only with USA but also with Turkey, as well as a number of regional States. And force everyone to sit down at the negotiating table with Tehran is extremely difficult, and today it is almost impossible.

The publication stresses that the tension between Turkey and the United States has not weakened, but only strengthened. And in the interests of Moscow to strengthen its cooperation with Ankara. “The Syrian knot” interwoven interests of many countries, so the Kremlin is unlikely to form, together with Iran the new axis against the United States. Especially given the fact how hostile Tehran refers to Israel.

Lebanon24 also refers to some statements in political circles, where it is said that in Russian-Turkish relations there is a visible tension due to the obsessive desire of Turkey to take control of territories in Northern Syria after the withdrawal of the US military, if it really takes place. In the interest of Russia is to transfer these areas under the control of the Syrians, not Turks.

And where, ask, something about oil? “The Syrian knot” its place is one of the most honored. The fact that he who controls oil fields in Syria will have a kind of carte Blanche in the post-war structure of the country. And if besides to consider that the conflict involved at least three of the world’s largest oil-producing countries — the U.S., Russia and Iran — much falls into place. Plus Turkey, which is the largest transit point of “black gold”. Oil and gas have always been and remain an economic basis political superstructure.

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