The dollar may rise to 80-90 rubles is predicted in the analytical review of the Ranepa and the Institute of economic policy named after E. T. Gaidar, reports TASS.
As noted in the study, the probability of such a course “very high” if the expected decline in oil prices to the level of 50-55 per barrel, maintaining the budget rules, involving the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic market in the national welfare Fund (NWF). Also in the list of conditions included the preservation of the external sanctions.
In compiling the draft Federal budget for the 2019-2021 years used government-approved forecast. It was developed in two versions: basic and conservative. Each of them involves a decrease in prices for the Russian export oil Urals.
The baseline forecast the price of oil gradually decreases entire billing period — from $ 69.6 per barrel in 2018 to 57.9 per dollar in 2021-m and 53.5 of the dollar in 2024-m. According to the conservative variant, the Urals by 2020, will fall in price to 42.5 dollars per barrel. Next will be a small rise to 45.9 per dollar by 2024.
The decline in oil prices to $ 50 per barrel and, consequently, the weakening of the ruble will contribute to inflation above the target level of 4 percent, experts say. “It is also likely to enhance the effect of the transfer rate in prices, despite the current limitations of domestic demand,” the report says.
As shown earlier in October, the poll, the Russians expect that in three months, one dollar will be given 72 rubles, and a year — 75.8 ruble.
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