Life has taught us not to trust neither the authorities nor business, nor the media, nor public men. In this situation may take a new government were discussed at the Gaidar forum 2020.
Distrust of government is not an abstract category but a very real indicator, without which we will not see any technological breakthrough or economic miracle. But in Russia, politics is so detached from people that are not very clear even where to begin to restore confidence: stop imprisoning the innocent, to give people at least partially manage their taxes, to return them to elections, or to abandon the plantations braces and obedience, gradually growing a new generation of conscious and responsible citizens? On these questions tried to find answers, experts of the Gaidar forum 2020.
Dean of the economic faculty of Moscow state University Alexander Auzan:
Why do we need trust? The French explored as linked gross domestic product per capita with the level of confidence. It turned out that if in Britain, Germany, the Czech Republic had the same level of trust in Sweden, which is considered one of the leaders in this direction, in these countries the GDP would have been higher. In Russia, notice he in that case would have been higher by 69%. That is one and a half times to increase the level of GDP per capita may increase the level of trust.
We as part of the trust one person to another twice as far behind from Sweden. What is the economy? If you do not trust, need mortgages, lawyers, guarantors. As they say, nothing strengthens faith in man as 100% prepayment. If you have no confidence, the processes go too expensive.
Is it possible to raise trust? Maybe it’s in our blood, and there’s nothing you can do about it? Interesting data were obtained by scientists at the twins. Unfortunately, parameters such as intelligence, 80% are genetics. It’s frustrating. Even our political and religious views by 25% is determined genetically. But trust depends on the blood in just 5 to 20%. Basically it is formed by external factors. To raise its level. Due to what? There are two kinds of leaders: Sweden, North America, Australia is one variety and the other China and Egypt. What does it mean? What is the General mechanism of emergence of trust? In game theory is “prisoner’s dilemma”. Two are in jail. If you confess first, let you go, but the second will give more time. If both remain silent, you may come away with both. This dilemma was important for economists. Trust profitable. Provided, however, that there is a guarantor. This can be one of two things. First — working laws, fair courts. It’s just a case of Sweden and North America. Or culture, when others say you can not behave differently. And then we get the example of China and India. Note that this is not always gives economic effect. Trust is not always fruitful. In Sweden, for example, trust is higher than in the U.S., but gross domestic product per capita there is not the highest. The question: how do you combine a particular culture and institution. The former Federal Republic — Estonia — was carried out the same double jump in the level of trust is less than 20 years. By the way, the economic indicators they have also quite high. How do they do it? They change institutions. But first and foremost they tried to culture.
It is crucial to decide: we are “short” play or “long”. I have a feeling that “short”. In this logic, to cut budgets much better than to invest in development, in human capital.
The transit authority began. We are interested in, and what to do with the institutions? According to the “Levada-center”, not all of them lose the trust of citizens. Over the past two years the governors of the trust even increased. We have conducted the annual survey in all regions of Russia, and found that where more trust a local authority, is significantly higher propensity to entrepreneurship. But it is blocked by the security forces.
What is the problem with the security forces? You know, the elites always control the violence, then, they are elite. But there are two ways of controlling. You either share the tools: you — Navy, me — the secret police, you — the investigative Committee, me — the Prosecutor’s office. This is an inefficient method. Either we collectively control these tools of violence. For example, in the Soviet Union after Stalin’s death was a collective Politburo control over the instruments of violence: “the Central Committee does not ticnet, the KGB will not cicnet”. Now it is not. We see competition law enforcement services on administrative, political and economic issues. It is a heavy story. So the first thing to do is to restore the collegial political control over the security services, to consider their economic component. I don’t think that the decisive step is what yesterday was said in the message of the President, in particular — about the Federation Council. I think we need to transform the security Council into a collective body.
As for the Parliament, from the point of view of the economist, that organ of our taxes, nothing more. We just don’t understand it. The Russians really don’t know what we will give 50 cents per ruble in taxes — more than in America. Before the VAT increase was 48 cents. At the same time, who manages our taxes — is unclear. So you need to increase the influence of the taxpayers. It is necessary to transfer payment of personal income tax with the company on the man that he paid the tax in the region where he lives. However, Moscow and St. Petersburg is unlikely to enjoy. But people begin to manage their municipalities to invest in their lives. Give people the opportunity to send part of the personal income tax alone: this is — in education, in health care. Let people vote with their taxes.
And the last — justice. Here, I’m afraid my position will be marginal. I not for the fact that the court was highly professional. I’m all for it stood on a serious reputational basis. From my point of view, in history there have been many cases when people lived without the legislature, no Executive. But without judicial power to live. If our courts do not work, must be someone else. Maybe the Council of elders, maybe someone else. In my opinion, for the judge is important, not professionalism, and reputation. His task is to solve the issue so that the conflicting parties considered the verdict fair. These things can substantially raise the national trust.
President, Chairman of Sberbank German Gref:
The already mentioned “prisoner’s dilemma” is a good example of what is mathematically the best model of behavior — mistrust. So, if you trust and your partner is not, he goes free and you get time.
After we introduced the legislation deals with the investigation, I looked at the statistics that 70-80% of criminal cases get to trial this scheme. This once again proves that in terms of the culture that we have, such schemes can not be applied. Our country is not theory, it’s a serious problem. And the situation needs to be changed. Just think what number of innocent people we have behind bars. This is a disaster just. What kind of trust in the judicial and law enforcement systems can be a speech? And this, incidentally, is the basis of the economy as a whole. If there is no confidence in the judicial system, then you can not discuss. This is a serious legislative problem that needs to be solved.
And second, our policy creates distrust because we do all the time the redistribution is zero sum. Someone something to take away in order to give to someone. The optimal policy expands the clearing, and does not lead to redistribution. We always expect that something we have will be taken away. Increase personal income tax to someone to reduce. Thus power only increases to his distrust, and all the time pushes between different groups of the population.
But if citizens don’t trust you, and if your team has no confidence, it will never lead to creation of effective system of management.
We are not Swedes, and the Swedes will not. How to deal with it? I came to the conclusion that the most important Minister in the government — Minister of education. Not the highest, and average. It lays the foundations of a cultural code. Social and emotional skills. You need to work with the education system, with kindergartens, with their families. The only way to change the situation with confidence. Should we be doing this? If you don’t trust the business, it is impossible to carry out any policy.
The Chairman of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin:
I believe that the evaluation of policy credibility is one of the key factors in the success of these reforms. Will refer to the data Edelman Trust Barometer. New we learn in the coming days, but I have last year. If in 2018 the trust in institutions of all 26 countries in General grew, Russia, unfortunately, was among those where trust in institutions was falling. Among the leaders of a growing confidence in are China and India. These are our direct competitors and by income per capita, so we would compare ourselves with them. So: they know how to enhance the role of institutions in society. We’re second year in a row occupied the last place from 26 countries. Loss of confidence in state and public institutions by 7%. for the year. This rating consists of four positions: the credibility of NGOs in Russia fell by 2%, business confidence — 7%, confidence in the state — 10% media — 9%. We can say critical situation.
Even if we are the right program of reform presented, and the government has stated that it will be sure to follow it, the success of these reforms would still be doomed. Always have to take steps that may seem to some to be uncomfortable. In this sense, I cite the example of the transition to targeted assistance to the poor. In fact, in our country the amount of resources allocated for social needs is one of the largest in the world — 11% of GDP. But if we look at the transfers, it appears that only 20% reaches the poor. It turns out, a huge amount of social assistance does not fall as intended. They need to be reallocated, to concentrate not on the support of the population as a whole, and on helping the needy. Those who need it. But, it turns out, the money will still have someone to take. These measures are impossible to perform smoothly. Someone they still dissatisfy. Similarly, we need to stop supporting weak enterprises are inefficient because they pull everyone back, and we have every year to allocate more subsidies. If we do this, the efficiency of the economy as a whole will rise, but may suffer some of the major enterprises. That is why it is so important to trust the authorities. People need to be sure that in the end, a few steps will be listened to. The reallocation of resources, changing priorities, always someone wins. But as a result society as a whole has to grow faster, the standard of living needs to increase significantly.
The Munich Institute in a recent study showed that the openness of a state decreases protest activity and eliminates the speculation that the government quietly someone something redistributed. Therefore, openness is a fundamental rule. If agreed that this is a priority, you need to do is not optional. And we even have evaluation of projects does not lead to resignations. Therefore, the responsibility — the most important institution. If it does not work the whole system.
Another important institution of higher trust is the turnover of power. We have, unfortunately, it doesn’t work fully. In such cases we are always dealing with total fatigue, unfulfilled promises. Last night’s resignation of the government gives hope that the new team will be able to do more, to achieve more. But it is also important that there were rules was to ensure that the level of freedom for entrepreneurship, especially in innovative industries, will not change. Otherwise, we will find another place where the freedom to experiment more.
But the bottleneck in Russia’s judicial and law enforcement system. The level of distrust they came in first place, far from breaking away from the rest of the institutions. We have developed two dozen measures to improve the judicial system. The expertise of lawyers and financiers have passed the 18 measures. Implemented five, and three of them partially. Why can’t we do at least that, agreed?
I agree that when macroeconomics and Finance all is well, in the first place is education. Unfortunately, today we have a Minister of education in the first place puts not training, and education. But this is not the cultural code of which you speak. It is rather obedience.
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