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The ruble in December waiting for the fairy test

Рубль в декабре ждут сказочные испытания

January began with a rate of 59.6 per dollar, and December ended with a figure of 58.6. And despite the fact that oil then was worth $55-62 per dollar. This year the course is constantly galloping, ranging from 58 to 68 rubles to the dollar and from 69 to 79 — euros. Although oil most of the year steadily grew — from $64 to $80 per barrel, and only from mid-October slipped back to $60. And here I must pass the last month of the year, which, in fact, will show: crash course into the hole or take off, as on the springboard.

I must say, the Dec has prepared the ruble, like the fairytale hero, a variety of tests. The first one can happen on Monday, 3 December when the market will “digest” the political results of the summit “big twenty” in Buenos Aires. And not the fact that these results will atraktivny exchange players in favor of Russia and its national currency.

In no time the ruble breath, as mid-week there’s been a summit of OPEC and affiliated countries — exporters of oil. There will decide the fate of the famous OPEC agreement regarding the reduction of oil production, and, accordingly, it will be clear whether the parties to stop falling here already a month and a half barrel. Well, about how the ruble depends on the price of oil in our country know even children. If, God forbid, the oil countries with the participation of Russia do not agree, we can safely predict a new fall “wooden”.

In the middle of the month in a big monetary come in the banks. On 14 December, is scheduled last in this year meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on the key rate of 19 e — fed with the same question at the rate of us. The probability that the Americans will increase that will raise the shares of the dollar worldwide, and provoke the outflow of capital to developed markets, including Russia. And all this together — a new attack on the ruble.

The list of possible trouble for the Russian national currency is not the end. After all, December is the peak of payments on external debt companies and domestic banks $8 billion, twice more than in November. It is these same companies and banks will open the market actively to buy dollars and sell rubles, undermining at the same time and the exchange rate of the Russian Bank notes.

And then there is the threat of overseas sanctions. The intensification of the rhetoric of American politicians, even in the absence of real steps, it is able to scare foreign investors, who still control a quarter of a ruble-denominated Treasury bonds. If they make a run and start to sell their paper, it will lead to flooding the financial market with rubles and a new weakening of Russian national currency. A similar reaction can be followed in any round of geopolitical tensions — at least with Ukraine, even Syria and then everywhere…

It should be added that the dollar traditionally at Christmas is enhanced by the rapid cyclic activity of the international online stores. But the ruble is the opposite of tradition, its course by the end of December is always weakened: because speculators have come the long new year holidays, and they just “drop” the ruble two weeks ahead of time.

However, the hero of Russian folk tales, as you know, all obstacles were overcome, with all the difficulties coped and eventually got his Princess and half the Kingdom to boot. In principle, fairy story for the ruble at the end of December, the rate will be stronger than in November — absolutely not excluded. Oil, geopolitics, and the decisions of Central banks may be in his favor. But the likelihood that these new year’s roller coaster, he still will slip and fall, experts estimate much higher. Too many obstacles ahead of you and they are too complex for our “wooden” character.

Most forecasters believes that by the beginning of 2019, the ruble will lose 5-10% of its value compared with the November level. This means that the year of the Pig we start with a dollar for 70 and 80 euros for.

It’s December — traditionally a difficult month for the ruble. Complex and important because it largely set the parameters of the exchange rate next year. In fact, the outgoing 2018 th was all for the Russian national currency difficult. Not an example of past 2017 mu: then all 12 months was observed just after the anomalous stability.

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