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The real dynamics of the Russian economy

Реальная динамика российской экономики

The year 2008 marked the end of economic growth and improving standards of living due to high energy prices, suggesting that a commodity economy can not continue to increase and to maintain the illusion of well-being. At that time Russia entered a period of slowing economic growth and attempts to create the illusion of prosperity and prosperity.

These new trends have signaled the ruling elite about the need for economic and social reform, but instead, the classical principle — “to tighten their belts and ride out the” once again picked up and already in 2014 has plunged the country into a protracted recession, the first signs of which were visible in 2013, but was clearly manifested in the sanctions period under the influence of decrease in oil prices. The result is a persistent tendency in the economy at constant exchange rate will increase their negative impact.

Let’s consider them.

A) reducing the weight of the Russian economy in the international division of labour, peripheral position in the economy, functioning under the sanctions.

In 2012, Russia ranked 8th in the world economy in 2017, 11, while according to the statements of the President from 2011 it is necessary “to untwist a flywheel of economic development, in growth to 6-7% per year, and over the next five years to enter the five largest economies in the world.” During this period, the growth rate not only slowed down but became negative. In constant prices in rubles of GDP in 2016 in comparison with 2011 increased by less than 2.5% (per year 0,5%) and in US dollars declined (!) a quarter.

The slogan “joining the Russian Federation among the five largest economies in the world” sounded again in 2018 in the new the may decrees — the law “On the national goals and strategic objectives development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024”. Surprisingly, problems of development in 2016 to coincide with the objectives of 2024, and it already says a lot about the “development” of the country.

Russia showed the worst result in comparison with other countries (Fig. 1). If in 2013 the world showed an increase of 5%, US 16%, China 27%, India 40%, the Russian economy (GDP in USD) decline by 31%.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 1. GDP growth for leading economies in the world between 2008 and 2013.

Did not happen, with the promise of doubling GDP in ten years. In 10 years GDP has grown by 49.4%. 2000 — 1.9 times. But the postulate voiced by the President in 2012 that “one-sided resource-based economy…does not provide…” and remained a dead letter and is not reflected in development programmes of the country.

B) the Refusal of the authorities to reform the Russian economy, relying on uluchshiteli measures without systemic changes in the structure of the economy and the quality of economic development.

The basis was taken the classic tools of the liberal paradigm, when every decision was mitigated a negative effect, creating a new one. For example, containing inflation by monetary contraction led to a slowdown in economic activity of economic entities and recession. All the instruments of salvation of the Russian economy has been reduced to the following:

— The Central Bank refused from the function to ensure stability of the ruble in favor of maintaining inflation at a low level, although the latter task is a constitutional obligation (Fig. 2).

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 2. The dollar and the volatility (according to CB)

The government devalued the national currency, which helped to mitigate the decline in GDP and has decided to temporarily the problem of filling the budget and fulfillment of social obligations, however, has led to growth in import prices, the fall in the standard of living of citizens and the financial difficulties of the business entities;

— The locomotive of the Russian economy remains oil and gas industry, which is especially visible on the background of the implementation of new projects in this area (table 1).

Table 1. The new Russian development projects

Реальная динамика российской экономики

In imitation of the strategy of development of the may decrees, which are only part of the parameters of development, although the target values. The problem may decrees the following:

* do not cover all the main directions of development, only some of them develop certain parameters (fields 11 and 218 orders);

* initially was unattainable in the absence of new factors of economic growth that would provide a financial mechanism for the implementation of the may decrees;

* has been completely failed, although the government reported about their successful completion. For example, investment 27%, and 17%, not 25 million high-performance workplaces, growth of wages, not 40*50% and 5%, etc.;

* led to more imbalance that is particularly evident in the growth of credit debt of constituent entities of the Russian Federation and increase of the budget deficit (Fig. 3).

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 3. Internal debt of the Federation by Federal districts

C) strengthening commodity specialization.

Russia began to produce primary energy (Fig. 4), most of which is exported, and not internal use. Production growth, in particular, partially offset the decrease in the cost of oil. Oil and gas remain key factors of economic growth in Russia.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 4. Primary energy production by types

According to the Central Bank of Russia increased the volumes of energy supply — crude oil (Fig. 5), while gas exports remained at the same level due to the geopolitical factors. What is remarkable: still delivered crude oil and products of its processing.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 5. The export of crude oil

D) the Drop in the standard of living of the citizens, particularly the wages of the population.

According to official data, the number of poor in 2013 (15.5 million) grew by 4.5 million, reaching figures of 20 million, although this figure reached 23.4 million.

Income of the population fell for the first time, though the decline was observed in 2014 continuously (Fig. 6). This decline was not in 2008. Cumulatively from 2014 to 2018, the income of the population decreased by 9.6%.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 6. Real money incomes of population, %

Formally, the wage has increased, but in US dollars has been rolled back to 2010 levels (Fig. 7). It is the people who paid for the mistakes of the authorities (primarily the devaluation) their income.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 7. Salary in US dollars

However, this shared data. If you take the distribution by level of income, we can see that the bulk of the population is not getting announced and 39 thousand (the national average wage according to Rosstat). 62% of the population have wages below the official (Fig. 8). For them the average income is 16 thousand. Similar data were obtained if we investigate the portal hh.ru.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 8. Population distribution by size of wages.

For comparison, 50% of MPs in 2016, had an income of 4.9 million rubles (Fig. 9).

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 9. The income of deputies of the State Duma

D) fully began to be felt the consequences of the policy optimization.

Under optimization refers to the reduction of expenditures on social infrastructure, as a consequence — the closure of social facilities and downsizing of socially important professions — doctors and teachers. Such measures led to a drop in the level of life of these categories of citizens, the deterioration of education (Fig. 10-17) and medicine, the increase in the deficit of professional personnel, increase of morbidity of the population.

This policy was carried out very consciously. Olga Golodets said that “65% of our citizens do not need higher education.” German Gref is convinced that “People don’t want to be manipulated when they have knowledge.” In the crisis condition and the health care system. The degree of wear in the sphere of health and social services one of the highest in comparison with other sectors of the economy. On average across industries, the degree of wear in 2016 amounted to 48.1%, and in health care has reached 57%.

In Fig. 10-17 presents the results of a public policy optimization.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 10. The number of doctors and medical staff

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 11. The number of teachers per 1000 students

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 12. The number of teachers in higher education

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 13. Budgetary financing of higher education

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 14. Place MSU in the rankings Academic ranking of World Universities 500

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 15. The degree of wear in the sector “Health”

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 16. The number of hospital organizations

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 17. The number of ambulance stations

E) the Russian Economy began to show significant deceleration, and the deterioration of some macroeconomic parameters.

The manufacturing industry was in the greatest decay. Share in gross value added over the years has decreased, while the share of extractive industries increased (Fig. 18). This figure shows the degradation of the manufacturing industry.

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 18. The share of the manufacturing and mining industry in GVA

Evidence is data product line the individual sectors of the manufacturing industry. In the sector “Production of main types of machinery and equipment” manufacturing only 38.5% of commodity items increased, while production of the 61.5% of commodity products fell by 44%. Similarly in respect of “Production of main types of electrical equipment and Production of the main types of vehicles and equipment” (table 2).

Table 2. Physical production in the sector of machinery and equipment

Реальная динамика российской экономики

The rate of investment falls, indicates that hopes for the restoration industry, when the existing factors do not (Fig. 19).

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 19. Investments in fixed capital

The fall in capital investment is exacerbated by high volumes of capital outflow from the country in which the economy is deprived of the necessary for the development of financial means (Fig. 20).

Реальная динамика российской экономики

Fig. 20. The outflow of capital ( + ) capital receipt (-)

A response to the current socio-economic situation in the country was a sharp drop in the birth rate and growth of natural population decline (Fig. 21).

Реальная динамика российской экономики

While maintaining the same model of development Russia will continue to lose their human resources at an accelerating rate.

Thus, the dynamics of the last years of development signals problems in the state’s economy, the solution of which must be an integral policy of the authorities. The principle of the classic wait-and-see policy, wait, tightening the belt does not work in a situation when the original model (resource Economics) has exhausted itself, and the existing growth rate at the level of statistical error (reliability growth is put into question) do not match the potential of the country.

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