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The NBU said the main external risks for Ukraine

НБУ назвал основные внешние риски для УкраиныThe financial regulator is mostly worried of trade and real war. And weakening the interests of investors and capital outflow.

The main external risks to 2019, are increased foreign military aggression against Ukraine, the trade war and a slowdown in the global economy, the weakening of investor interest in developing countries and capital outflow from these countries. This is stated in the Programme of action of the National Bank for the current year.

As noted in the document, still the probable attempts of external military intervention in the Ukrainian Affairs of the Russian Federation.

“The recent aggression of Russia is taking new shapes. The situation in the Azov sea will remain tense”, – stated in the document.

In addition, the intensification of trade wars, the world’s largest economies may be slowing growth of world trade, the relevant issues for the global economy.

“Negative effect such confrontations may be an excess supply of commodities in certain regions of the world with a suitable pressure on prices to the downside. In this case, and in the case of the deterioration of access to certain markets, foreign exchange earnings from exports may be reduced. This may affect the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate and, consequently, inflation,” say the experts of the NBU.

Risk is the weakening of investor interest in developing countries and capital outflow from these countries.

“A fairly quick transition of the Central banks of the leading countries to tighten monetary policy determines the outflow of capital from countries whose markets are developing, particularly Ukraine. Accordingly, there is a growing concern of experts on a possible approximation of the global economy to a phase of decline,” – noted in the NBU.

“The state of the global economy, the deployment of protectionist sentiment in the world, the dynamics of commodity prices and investors’ appetite for developing countries depends on the ability to reduce inflation and to move to the free movement of capital. A strengthening external military aggression can jeopardize not only the potential achievements but also the achievements of past years”, – the document says.

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