Experts believe that 2019 for the Russian economy carries too much risk, and therefore GDP growth may not occur. Analysts of the rating of the main threats that are placed on the strength of the negative impact on the economy.
First and foremost, a positive result should not expect from the state struggles with self-employed, but rather over the taxation of their income. Tight control over such category of persons may lead to a number of negative consequences, including a decline in demand for Bank transfers and loss of public confidence in financial institutions.
The probability of occurrence of money substitutes in the form of cryptocurrency is also too high. In this case, the state and completely lose any control.
In 2019 it will be prohibited the construction of equity. In the end, a small construction company can massively fail. But that’s not all cons of this situation. For bankruptcy will be followed by rising unemployment, falling building materials, and low percentage of housing.
Another negative factor that is to be expected – this is a new package of anti-Russian sanctions. The possibility of disconnection from SWIFT and a ban for the Russian settlements in dollars is quite low, but there are other nuances. Sanctions may be imposed in the form of a ban on buying new Russian debt and foreign currency bonds of Russian credit organizations, which could lead to devaluation.
The fourth risk 2019 – the fall in oil prices. The Russian economy is oil-dependent, so such a threat is to be expected. The value of the dollar to the population in roubles could surprise the Russians with their three-digit value.
The VAT increase, as the fifth risk will lead to additional withdrawal from the economy of about more than 400 billion rubles. As a result, the profitability of the business will be reduced, will increase prices and reduce purchasing power, and inflation can reach 7%. Pensioners their increase to pension in the amount of 1 thousand rubles does not feel she will be a compensation for inflation.
The last risk for the Russian economy – is disconnected from the global Internet. The initiators do not think that this will lead to a technological disaster and the problems of trading business.
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