Practice shows that street protests can continue indefinitely, but if the leader turn away the police and army, can only escape.
The Bolivian President “voluntarily” resigned after neighbouring Argentina did not allow him to leave the country. His house is already defeated, and he found refuge in the Mexican Embassy.
Mode fan Coca Evo Morales collapsed after the police, after the military refused to carry out repressive orders. There are a lot of reasons. The simplest is that the former is already the Bolivian President — Indian, and claimed that the government represents their interests, and the army and the Metropolitan police consist mostly of local Hispanic Creoles.
And yet the regime collapsed not because of ethnic contradictions. Just Bolivia is an example of how the state was stronger than the usurper. Any dictatorship, even the most soft authoritarian, which is not harsh repression, relies primarily on force. This power, she needs not in order to suppress ordinary citizens. They can be completely on the side of the ruler, especially the first time when he came to power under the guise of a reformer.
The force needed to fight the state. The state’s courts, laws, police, parties, Parliament and hundreds of thousands of ordinary officials. In a country that in recent years “shaking” of the revolution, all these people have their own idea about how they work, what is professionalism and self-respect. To establish personal power necessary in the first place, to subdue it. But when the state has collapsed and lawlessness prevailed, that is, the arbitrariness of one person (or a collective dictatorship), only then the army and police can be deployed against its own people.
A vivid example — the current Venezuelan regime. But this was easier, because its founder, Hugo Chavez came from the military environment. So this lipopolysaccha authoritarian political system — this is the army. Officials, Parliament (and even police) in Venezuela can indefinitely and massively rebel against the usurpation of power by the President. But the army firmly stand by it, because it is not just tame, but knows that it is “a son of a bitch”.
The Bolivian story shows the opposite picture. Evo Morales was given to the government of the Indian population. The army and police, he went to a predominantly Creole. But, more importantly, other people’s mental. He counted on his overwhelming rating, which actually went to the coup. And already repeated.
First he changed the Constitution, and his first term was named “zero” that has allowed to be elected twice. He then held a referendum, which was intended to allow him to be elected for the fourth (technically third) time. And failed — the government did not massively rig the results in favor of Morales.
Here he would like this dictator to use force against creeping resistance. But instead he pushed through the court system, “received the label” for participation in new elections. And, apparently, banal failed to win in the first round.
According to Bolivian law, Morales had more than half of the votes or have more than a 10 percent advantage over the nearest pursuer. The advantage is loyal to the head of the election Commission of Bolivia (Indian) painted. But it was too late.
The government went on the offensive against the usurper. It turned out that he had violated the main principle of authoritarian leader — one must have personally loyal security forces. It could be the police or the army. It may be some kind of national guard. But it must be absolutely loyal and willing to use force against the population. And as in Venezuela — regardless of how many people come out to protest or thirty thousand or three million.
Here are some of these security forces have Morales was not. The first “leaked” his army, followed by the police. Further unsuccessful escape attempt and regular retirement. Not helped even the mysterious spin doctors, which to him were allegedly sent from Russia.
And all because man, it seems, Morales, was not so bad. Perhaps, when it increased production of cocaine, and he loved to chew on Coca leaves, but he did not destroy the Foundation of the Bolivian state, replacing in one person all the state institutions, as happened for example in Russia. Became and “taught” its army and police on the population. For that, I must say, he paid.
Now, perhaps, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who closely follow the fate of authoritarian leaders around the world, will ask citizens: “do you want to like in Bolivia?” That’s just the opinion polls the last time saying the answer might have been not so clear. But to hear it does not work, because the Bolivian version in modern Russia is absolutely impossible.
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