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The Japanese gave the hand because of the Smoke: behind the scenes of secret negotiations

Японцам дали по рукам из-за Курил: за кулисами секретных переговоров

Judging by recent statements of officials of Tokyo in Japan decided that the disputed Kuril Islands are already in their pocket. And that’s on them suddenly collapsed “ice shower”. The Japanese Ambassador was summoned to our foreign Ministry and learned that Russia intends to make Tokyo the peace Treaty only on the basis of “recognition of the sovereignty of Russia over the South Kuril Islands”.

Imagine this: you are terribly hungry. Before you put the Smoking dish of your favorite food. Put — and then take and then show you the Fig. It is in a similar position now was our “Japanese friends”.

A terrible cry on Smolensk square was very timely. Japanese politicians and officials in recent days and weeks get up to mischief in earnest. Their enthusiastic but clumsy statements began to create the Moscow real problems both in domestic and in foreign policy.

Here, for instance, the most authoritative Russian journalist in Japan, the head of the Bureau of TASS in Tokyo Vasily Golovnin, recently wrote in social networks: “a Very trusted foreign policy adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is now in Washington…

Advisor kawaii in addition to contacts with the leaders of the administration and the Senate have already acted guzikowski Institute has put forward two interrelated thesis in Russia. First, according to him, Moscow and Tokyo share the feeling of threat that comes from China. The EA made clear that this conclusion follows from the content of the secret negotiations is now the first persons of Russia and Japan.

Secondly, he said that a compromise between Russia and Japan and signing between them the peace Treaty will be an important tool to curb the rising China’s ambitions. USA, said Kawai-San, must therefore do everything possible to promote negotiations between Tokyo and Moscow.”

Hard, right? Moscow believes is aimed at “curbing the growing ambitions” of the US Alliance with China the cornerstone of its foreign policy. In the meantime, Advisor to Prime Minister of Japan, referring to the secret talks with his boss Putin, innocently (or, on the contrary, very subtly) tells the Americans that Moscow is the most brazen cheats in Beijing. It’s not even diplomacy at the kindergarten level. The language of streets and language of high international politics it is called framing in the first degree.

The same can be said about the statements made by other Japanese leaders. Moscow graciously promised not to demand “compensation” for the best of the South Kuril Islands within the Russian Federation not to expel from the disputed Islands of the Russian citizens when they come under the sovereignty of Japan.

When you write about complex and confusing international diplomatic game, emotions are harmful. But I still can’t hold back his feelings. And whether Japanese officials to get acquainted with the Russian proverb “do not say Ho until they are hatched?” But if these feelings I feel, what you think, feel residents of the Far East?

If the Japanese in the figurative sense is not given at the hands of their arrogant statements can be one of the factors of internal political destabilization in our country. Putin went down in history as the man who restored Russia to the Crimea. I doubt he wants to add to the list of its historic achievements with the phrase “the man who surrendered to Japan the Southern Kuril Islands”.

But what Putin wants to achieve in relations with Japan? Lavrov’s Deputy Igor Morgulov said that the above-described statements by officials from Tokyo “grossly distort the essence of the agreements between the leaders of Russia and Japan on the acceleration of the negotiation process”. But what exactly is the essence of agreements between Putin and Abe, that is so rude “distort” in Tokyo?

I have always believed that the settlement of the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan is not possible: the parties ‘ positions are diametrically opposed and have no chance of rapprochement. But the intensity of contacts of the highest leaders of the two countries makes me lean towards the conclusion that it would not necessarily be familiar to all the talks for talks and simulate the process forward. With high probability, Putin and Abe are discussing a workable compromise.

What this compromise might be? To speak about the secret negotiations of the highest government leaders, without knowing the content of these negotiations, difficult. Difficult — but in this case little can. It is important to understand that above us is not dripping. Russia can continue quite a normal life without a peace Treaty and resolving territorial dispute with Japan. Of course, such a settlement is desirable, but not mandatory.

A maximum of what, from my point of view, can go Putin, clearly described in official documents. It’s a return to the joint Declaration of 1956, which provided for, among other things, the transfer of the Tokyo two minor Islands of Habomai and Shikotan.

You do not want to transfer to Japanese even these two little Islands? Me too. And I think that this case will not happen. Will not happen because the two Islands to the Japanese a little. Over them, too, not dripping. So they — I mean the Japanese politicians and Japanese public opinion – I want all or nothing. Nothing, most likely, they will not receive.

Why so much Prime Minister Abe? On what he expects? Here we are entering into the plane of speculation. Perhaps Abe believes that he is the smartest and the most cunning and that he will “pass between the streams”. Well, let them try. Another thing is that any concessions to Japan by Russia is possible only under condition of not less significant concessions to Moscow from Tokyo. Any other result would be totally unacceptable for the Russian public opinion. Therefore, Mr. Abe needs to correctly calculate their strength — then to not be disappointed.

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