This year the conflict in the Donbas may flare up with new force.
In the zone of military conflict in the East of Ukraine continues to remain extremely tense situation. The most fierce fighting with heavy artillery breaking out in the direction of Donetsk – Avdiivka in the area of the industrial zone.
Amid the military battles occasionally pop up various statements about the timing of the end of the war in the Donbass. For example, in the beginning of this year the Deputy Minister on the issues of the temporarily occupied territories and internally displaced persons Georgy Tuka said that the process of liberation of the occupied territories of the Donbas might begin in the fall of 2017. The Minister of internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov said that this year in front of the guards will face the challenge to reach internationally recognized state border of Ukraine in the Donbass, and in the future — and to the Crimea.
“Clearance no.” Donetsk residents say that do not see any steps to establish a real cease-fire and the approaching end of the war. And yet not cease to hope that sooner or later the conflict will be settled.
“Around the town all day there are fights, not a day goes by without shooting, – says Olga Salutin. – Very much like the world. People are tired of the constant volleys and attacks. Over the past three years we’ve all changed. If before all there grandma advocated the “Russian world”, now I realize who the culprit of our misfortune, and more wary of assorted “militias” who, only doing it to fill their pockets. We, of course, hope for the best, but some of the lumen – no.”
Change is coming. Many residents of the occupied territories note that in recent times among people there is a growing opinion of the imminent change in vector “power” of the militants.
“I think something’s going to happen. Already starting to be some movement – I can’t explain exactly feel intuitive. I think all of the “Republic” has already shown the inconsistency and impossibility of existence. To fight them has no meaning, they will not win anything, and just die for their “leaders.” The best thing for them is to lay down their arms and rebuild what they destroyed, – says a resident of Donetsk, Natalia kuksina. – Everyone who wanted to let them go to Russia, no one will not keep”.
It supports and resident of Makeyevka Mikhail Shevchenko. “I think this year will be decisive. Or at least the start of some major changes. We see that everything is at an impasse – we need something to do. Good, the rebels should give Ukraine uncontrolled land border with Russia – and that’s it. The rest of the Ukrainian army and the citizens do themselves,” – said makeascene.
Without optimism. In turn, the political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko gives disappointing forecast for the next development of the situation in the Donbas.
“I do not share the optimism Avakov, tookie and those who talk about near the end of the conflict. I don’t understand, based on what their findings and I, frankly, their conclusions seem questionable, says Volodymyr Fesenko. – I do not see any real prerequisites to completion of the conflict – they simply do not. To liberate the Donbass, we can’t. Any attempt to liberate the Donbas by military means, will face opposition from Russia. This will be a repeat of the events of August 2014 and the events at debaltseve, under the guise of volunteers will be there to fight the Russian part and, God forbid, it comes to the use of aircraft. It would transfer the war to the rest of the territory of Ukraine. For political and diplomatic settlement also there are no prerequisites – all hung. Everyone says we need to move on, to understand the risks of deadlock of the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but do not give alternatives. In the next period of time the key task is to prevent escalation and intensification of hostilities”.
Still, he notes that, in certain circumstances, the conflict may be resolved very soon.
“Either something will happen in Russia and then Ukraine will have the opportunity to resolve the conflict in an acceptable scenario for her. For example, if the new Russian leader for reconciliation with the West agrees on a compromise version of the Donbas. It seems like a utopia, but theoretically it is possible, – says Fesenko. Either this conflict will fade. The parties come to an understanding of the need to strengthen security measures and implement all previously signed agreements, provided the status quo – split of Donbass. If this can be done, then military action will fade. But while this is so, well unlikely.”
The culmination of the summer. In turn, the military expert Giorgi Samanishvili noted that it is still early to make accurate predictions. According to him, a possible starting point is the end of fighters will serve as a sharp intensification of fighting.
“Until I see cautious optimism forecasts: suddenly “DNR/LNR” will disappear suddenly on the streets of Donetsk will be Ukrainian flags, suddenly the last three years will be erased from the memory of the people… Until the leaders of the “republics” are doing everything to infuriate not only Ukraine but the world community. And only begs for the deployment of peacekeeping troops. As a variant – on the outer joint administration of the occupied territories with representatives of States, say, channel four. But the parish leadership from the outside will not solve the main problem – the supply in the Donbass weapons from Russia, says George Samanishvili. – For shortages of Russian humanitarian convoys and on the General situation with idle factories, we can say that on that side the problem starts. By the summer, I think the opposition will reach the climax, then you will see clear prospects. The only “but” until the summer the team will have to stay in the war. To leave, the militants will be loud and hard.”
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