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The incomes of Russians will grow

Putin does not know how much is real and the system is calibrated to prevent lifting of the standard of living.

Once behind the “straight line”, then briefly retell what is known to the leader about the material circumstances of his subjects.

So, the head of Russia pleased that “began to recover and revenue.” Sign of this recovery, he believes the increase in the average salary paid in may to 48.5 thousand (by 2.8% more than a year ago in real terms). However, immediately encourages viewers “not to be angry because they do not have such salaries, And I and some other colleagues, we have to use average figures, but they still show a trend”.

Further, he points out that “this year the indexation of insurance pensions for old age was 7.05%, with inflation last year, 4.3 percent”. And there is better.

In addition, Putin reported familiarity with a term such as real disposable income. He is aware that “they fall”, but almost does not delve into the analysis of the causes — “I am not going to list them all”.

Viewers advised to wait until the projects “will push productivity and on this basis will ensure the growth of welfare”. And wait-it will not take long: “the Results should be felt already this year…”

I do not think that this analysis brought to the public’s understanding of the situation.

Fresh report of Rosstat, we can further learn that in January—may, retail trade turnover (the most important real indicator of living standards) grew by 1.7% versus the first five months of 2018. A year earlier, its growth was higher and amounted to 2.8%. Import of goods to Russia in the first months of this year (another important indicator of the level of consumption) declined 1%. And the index of industrial production in manufacturing industries — those that are designed to become a “base for growth, prosperity,” increased by 2.4% (the year before it increased by 3.2%).

You know how hard it is to Rosstat. So interesting not so much his numbers as a comparison with those that were before. Almost all items even state statistics recognizes that the acceleration is not. There is a slowdown. Fresh data on how it affects the quality of life of citizens, do not exist, because real disposable income is now calculated and approved in the courts only once in three months. But for the first quarter of 2019, even in the official report, real disposable incomes declined by 2.3%.

As it is mounted with the official wage growth, albeit slow, and other small upgrades? And in any way. Wages state statistics, which the head of state believes to be reliable, is not at all about the lives of ordinary people.

First, the so-called average wage, which operate with the chief and “other colleagues”, is not just the earnings of the average worker. Such is the median salary. It is approximately 70-75% of the arithmetic mean.

Second, the “average” salary, which Rosstat reports to Putin, is not even average in an arithmetic sense. This is only the average wage “workers organizations”.

According to the Centre for development of HSE in 2018 in the “organizations” were occupied by only 43.7 million people, or 60.6 per cent of total employment (72.1 mn). The number of employees in “organisations” in addition, also decreases from year to year (4% only for 2015-the 18th), and “other employed” — on the rise (by 3.9% over the same period). Accurate information about these “other” at statedata almost there, but you know what they are getting significantly less than their successful colleagues from “organizations”.

Moving from the average wage in the “organizations” to the median wage of all employees without exception and otchetliv personal income tax, will get definitely less than 30 thousand And this figure is increasing or not is, I suspect, not really known. Reliable data, which would “show a trend”, no.

Now about the happy pensioners. Yes, they have increased the pension insurance by 7.05%. But not all and only idle. Running, which for almost a quarter of retired long ago is not indexed. Besides, they are not dealing with last year’s four percent inflation, which was mentioned by the leader, and with the current (5.2 percent). Therefore, the real size of pensions has grown, according to the experts of the HSE, just 0.7%.

And finally nesaretnam and under retirement prybytky of our citizens. The share of income (and absolute amounts) of the funds they receive from entrepreneurial activities and from property, from year to year decreases. The state machine controls, checks, and legalize many other ways stifles any such activity.

Another negative factor is the increase in fees and levies. Last year alone, the share of required payments to the cash incomes of the population increased from 11.1% to 12.1%.

Here are the basic terms of reducing income and standard of living. A small increase in the purchase of goods and services, if it is not drawn, due to the fact that people go into debt and spend savings. The bosses are very unhappy with the surge in lending and promises this year to prevent this undesirable phenomenon.

Now briefly digress on the story.

In 2000 — 2007 annual growth of real incomes of the population fluctuated between 10% and 17%. Primarily due to the rapidly growing flow of petrodollars. The Finance Department was dropped to the reserves part of this stream, but the Russian company then no problem took a lot of money abroad, in the country on light profit-tech foreign capital, and ordinary people getting a piece of this prosperity. The rise in living standards was provided in part by the increase in domestic production of goods and services, but even more import, the volume of which has grown at an incredible rate.

In 2008 — 2013, real incomes grew annually by 3-5%. Revenues in this period of time have not diminished, but the policy of public spending has changed: the money without counting handed to tycoons on the support of unprofitable production and unsuccessful projects, and cool at the same time increased the power costs of all shapes and sizes.

Starting in 2014, in postkrymsky and the post-oil era, real incomes decline. To 2016, inclusive fast, from 2017 and to this day slow. The oil revenues were very impressive, but still decreased by almost half. In debt abroad is no longer given, but if given, then under unfavorable percentage. While favorite military-security spending, it was decided to keep. So all the losses have taken on the people. We assume voluntarily.

But now, knowing that the ends still kept, he begins to murmur. Last year the budget had a huge surplus. In the present — not less. Why life is not beginning to improve?

The answer is easy. Because the last 11 years, the Russian economy is barely growing. Harder to answer the following question: how much longer can this go on?

Former liberals from financial institutions explain that uncontrolled cash infusion will cause us is not the growth of production and national income, but merely a resurgence of inflation. The remnants of a free economy and demoralized behaved state machine. Expect them to business initiatives, entailing the recovery of the economy and earnings growth, is simply naive.

This is true. However, on the alignment of the economic impasse, the regime worked for many years. The system is calibrated to prevent any Amateur growth. So, seeing no other options, she grabs the national projects. That is, for the same infusion of money, but strictly under state supervision and through the hands of state billionaires.

To believe that the national projects “ensure the welfare” — still believe that in the late Soviet “food program”. The volume of some little, but very expensive work can be impressive, and to draw the flourishing economy will become easier. But the rise of living standards of ordinary people, especially “now,” this alleged prosperity cannot be converted. Is it only through Rosstat.

 

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