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The growth of the economy, as the statistical error

Рост экономики, как статистическая ошибка

The rapid growth of agriculture in Russia, of which almost 10 years were reported by Rosstat and which sported officials – from Ministers to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, was on 30% “false” and error statistics.

More than 10 million tons of agricultural products – from meat to milk to vegetables and fruits, which appeared in the official records and allowed to report on the present boom in the agricultural sector, – in fact, never existed.

A massive “registry” in the spirit of the last decades of the Soviet Union revealed during the all-Russian agricultural census, as noted in the December “Monitoring the economic situation” experts Ranepa: the monetary value the amount actually produced agricultural products to Russia was less than the declared 542 billion.

Initially, Rosstat estimated the growth of agricultural production in 2012-17 gg at 20.7%, but after adjustments the rate has decreased by more than half to 8.7%.

Simultaneously, the revised data for the previous 20 years (since 1996), which was also significantly below the original estimates. As a result, the low base effect and 5-year growth was 14.7%, which is still a third lower than reported.

Milk production was 3.4 percent, or a million tons less than Rosstat reported past 5 years.

The collection of vegetables and melons adjusted down by 17.2%, or 2.6 million tons. “Registry” in the production of fruits and berries amounted to 8.2%, or 268 tons.

A disaster turned into a revision of the data collection potatoes. The difference between the actual and the declared figures accounted for 35.9%.

If we consider the “corrected” statistics for the past 17 years, the harvest of potatoes in Russia is now in decline, and the accumulated result of the collapse reaches 42% complaining of the Ranepa.

Thus, according to the original data in RF in 2000, produced 34 million tons of potatoes, and by 2007, increased the collection to 36.8 million tons. 2006 census-year adjusted figures: it turned out that for these years there was no growth, and falling to 27.2 million tonnes.

“After 2007, according to the Federal state statistics service reports was again an increase (on average, 240 thousand tons per year). After the census 2016 data is again corrected: it turned out that in 2017, the gross harvest amounted to 29.6 million tons, and only 21.3 million And during this period, as it turned out, was not growth but decline in production: in comparison with the original data for 2007 to 15.5 million tonnes, compared to adjusted by 5.9 million tons”, – the report says in Ranepa.

Such are the paradoxes of national statistics: Rosstat 17 years of reports on the growth of production, but by 2017 the year it is 1.6 times lower than in 2000, specifies the main researcher of the Center for agrifood policy IPEA Ranhigs Vasily Uzun.

It’s surprising that the data are reviewed not only for individual farms, which is really difficult to quantify, but the figures for agricultural enterprises (corporate farms) and farms, he adds. While the figures are distorted only in the direction of increase.

“Farm managers and owners’ interest seems to be there. On the contrary, high values can lead to an increase in taxes and other payments. However, it remains such an interest from the leaders of a higher rank. Regional management should report on the implementation of the indicators of the program depends on the size of the state support”, – said the expert.

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