The current Chinese economic growth is likely to be below 6 percent amid fluctuations in domestic demand. This was stated by Taymūr Baig, chief economist of DBS Group Research, says CNBC.
Recent signals about the second largest economy in the world point to weaker growth. Including tech giant Apple has recently cut its forecast for revenues for the first quarter, taking into account many factors, including demand in China. Also Monday, the Hong Kong automaker Geely said the company failed to achieve targets in sales in 2018, and predicts sales at the level of 2019.
“I wonder what part of the domestic demand is weak and external demand is not so bad”, — said the Taymūr Bag.
“Particularly weak”domestic demand is signaled structural changes in the Chinese economy, he told CNBC in a broadcast program Capital Connection.
He also said that DBS expects China’s GDP growth at below 6 per cent.
Last year China reported economic growth of 6.5 percent in the third quarter, marking its weakest pace since the global financial crisis. However, the official growth rate of the country in 2018 was approximately 6.5 percent.
Although official data suggest that China’s economy has kept most of last year, she now appears to be slowing as the production and the export orders are falling on the background of the country’s trade dispute with the United States, the largest trading partner of the United States.
In addition to fighting the tariffs, Chinese economy is faced with their own internal obstacles. Even before the US President Donald trump has begun a new escalation of trade tensions, Beijing has tried to cope with a slowdown in its economy after decades of breakneck growth.
Despite negotiations between the two economic giants, is underway in Beijing, Baig said that it is unlikely a trade war over the next three to six months because of the region differences go far beyond imports and exports.
“We are slightly relieved, if things don’t get worse”, — said Bag.
In early December, trump and Chinese President XI Jinping agreed to a truce for 90 days and has delayed the planned increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion, which was originally scheduled to enter into force on 1 January, while both sides tried to negotiate a deal.
A positive signal, according to Baha, will extend a three-month truce for the summer, which will give the global economy some breathing room in the first half of the year.
“But beyond that, let’s control our expectations”, he warned.
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