Rosstat just released fresh data on the demographic processes in Russia. But, despite their ability to turn black into white, the statistical office is forced to admit that the extinction of the population of the country continues, and the pace has even accelerated.
The total population of Russia in January-September of the current year decreased by 43,7 thousand people. This figure is the sum of natural population change and net immigration. Natural decline, which is a difference between the number of deaths and births, was for the first 9 months of EUR 236.9 thousand Net immigration for the period amounted to 193,2 thousand. It is mainly immigrants from the Central Asian republics of the former USSR. Taking into account arrivals in the country we get outlined above the figure of net loss of population of Russia.
As you know, last year the may presidential decree determined the decision of demographic problems of the country as one of the priorities of the state policy for the period up to 2024. According to the decree, was prepared and from 1 January this year, launched the national project “Demography”.
The project aims to slow down the natural decline of the population and prevent the population decline of the country. Demographic statistics in the first three quarters of this year allows to make some assumptions on the implementation of the national project “Demography”. So, any improvement of the demographic situation is not fixed. On the contrary, continues, today, to speak of the future, “the country’s slide into the pit of the demographic crisis”.
Judge for yourself. At the end of last year, the natural decline amounted to 224,6 thousand people. This year, according to the national project, it was not eliminated, but only reduced to 219,4 thousand. But it (the decline) is already in the first three quarters amounted to EUR 236.9 thousand people. In relation to the indicator of the 9 months of last year is more by 36%. It is especially summed up the fertility, he was three times lower than the number born in the first three quarters of last year. We can assume that at year end natural decline will pass through the bar 300 thousand. This year will almost certainly be a record for the largest natural population loss over the last 11 years!
And this despite the fact that launched the national project “Demography”, in which there are five Federal projects with a very ambitious title: “the Financial support of families with children”; “Older generation”, “Strengthening public health”, etc.
The curator of the project is the Vice-Premier of the Russian Federation Tatyana Golikova, head — labor Minister Maxim Topilin. The project’s planned funding of $ 3.1 trillion. RUB it Turns on half a trillion per year. This year, according to the passport of the national project, funding must reach 545 billion. the Money is very serious.
And here, commenting on recent demographic statistics of Rosstat, the press Secretary of the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov said Friday: “Indeed, the demographic hole, which is repeatedly explained by our President and all leaders of the social field, is now in its climax. Of course this is very unpleasant. The clash between two demographic hole in one.”
Phrase press Secretary about the “two demographic Yam” sold in all Russian media. In its absurdity it can compete with the well-known catch phrase, “no Money, but you hold fast.” President Vladimir Putin already gave a description of the activities of the press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov: “He sometimes carries a “Blizzard” that I see on TV and think: what is he telling? Who put him on it?”. Peskov statement about “two demographic Yam” — that is the “Blizzard.”
Apparently, Dmitry Peskov tried to cover up the obvious fact that the failure of the national project “Demography” at the very start. In fact, according to the passport project, we had to see positive trends. Even if you believe in the fairy tale about “two demographic Yam”, then why the initiators of the project did not consider this factor at the stage of its development? And considered for the simple reason that such factors do not exist.
Let me remind you that earlier, talking about demographics, Peskov said that one “pit” are the adverse events of the great Patriotic war, and the other “pit” — a crisis situation in the country in the early 1990-ies.
The theory of different “demographic Yam” is pure justification and cover the complete helplessness of the current government. The same “pit” (any kind of “heritage” of Soviet times) and come up with those responsible for other national projects (their total number today is 13). I am sure that, barring radical shocks, then next year all the targets of the national project “Demography” will fail, dying people will continue and even accelerate. Mr Dmitry Peskov, if you remain at your post, will come up with some “demographic pit”. For example, one that emerged in Russia during the First world war of 1914-1918 And in the third year of the failure of the national project, he might recall the “demographic hole” of the Patriotic war of 1812.
And to show that the theory of “demographic Yam” Mr Peskov — Frank “Blizzard”, I will cite some figures from the demographic statistics relating to the recent history of our country.
Here, in particular, the Russian Empire at the time of its greatest prosperity — 1913. It (excluding Finland) lived of 163, 7 million people (by the way, is 27% more than in 1897; the growth of the population of the Empire for 16 years amounted to 34.6 million people). Then she began is the “demographic hole”, which was generated by the First world war, 1917 revolutions, the Civil war.
At the beginning of 1920 the country was inhabited only by 137.7 million people. In the “demographic hole” disappeared 26 million (decrease of population during the period 1913-1919 gg.). Now cite data on the population for some subsequent years (at the beginning of year; mln.):
1927 — 147,0
1929 — 154,2
1937 — 164,5
1939 — 170,5
1941 — 198,7
As you can see, persistently high population growth rate. Life in the country was tense. Passed the industrialization. Consumption per capita of basic foods and industrial goods — starvation (from the point of view of modern standards). But the country developed quickly and economically, and demographically. The leadership of the country, no stupid programs and projects on demography is not developed and not implemented. Population growth in the literal sense was “natural”. Because people gradually began to make sense of life and to see the future.
To replace the future no benefits and no standards of consumption of products, goods and services impossible. No one in government or the people referred to the fact that, say, “a demographic hole” of the second decade of the twentieth century makes it difficult to solve the state and family problems, to industrialize and to bear children. By about 1936, the Soviet Union in terms of population reached the level of 1913. And the beginning of the war surpassed it by 21.4%.
The following “demographic pit” was the Great Patriotic war of 1941-1945 In December 1945, the population amounted to 172,0 million. In comparison with the beginning of 1941, the reduction of the Soviet population was 26.7 million. Now cite data on the population for some subsequent years (at the beginning of year; mln.):
1950 — 179,2
1953 — 188,7
1959 — 208,8
1970 of 241.7
1979 — 262,4
1989 286,7
And in December 1991, at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the population reached 294 million people. As you can see, the post-war period was characterized by high population dynamics. Operated and improved the socio-economic development planning of the country. But nobody came to plan for population growth. The population growth was in the full sense “natural.” No “demographic Yam” was not. And certainly, none of the Soviet leaders never came to write off their flaws and failures to the “demographic hole” of the past.
And now for the “demographic hole” of contemporary Russian history. Mr D. Sands ties it to events of the early 90-ies. Yes, indeed, in connection with the collapse of the USSR, education of the Russian Federation and the beginning of the “reforms” (covering the collapse and robbing of the country) began the decline of population of the Russian Federation. On the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the RSFSR lived 148, 54 million. In 1992 and 1993, this indicator (already in RF) remained almost unchanged. A noticeable decline began in 1994, it lasted until 2009, when the population fell to the level of 142,74 million.
Then began the increase of the population of the country, however, modest but still an increase. And no one in particular about the demographics in power did not. At the beginning of 2018, the population of Russia reached its maximum value — 146,88 million However, the figure of the RSFSR, 1991, the population of the Russian Federation and in 2018 were not up significantly (1.66 million people). Why is the leadership of the country concerned with the problem of demography? Yes, because the demographic statistics were “drawn”.
Depopulation of Russia long enough to kamuflirovannaya the fact that the total population was calculated (and still is calculated) taking into account net immigration. We are talking mainly about those who are called “labor immigrants” who came and is coming mainly from neighboring countries. The influx of such immigrants gradually began to dry up.
Authorities have worried that the ugly demographic truth naked. And in 2017 began in advance to prepare the national project “Demography”. It is a demographic truth exposed already by the end of 2018. Here is a picture for this year:
Born 1 604 344 people (85 of 540 less than 2017);
Died 1 828 910 (4 570 persons more than in 2017);
The decline of 556 224 human (in 2017 decline 134 456 person);
Migration gain totaled 124 844 people.
For us, the key demographic indicator should be a natural population increase (the difference between the number of births and deaths for the period). And what do we see? It turns out that for all the years of existence of the Russian Federation had only three years (2013, 2014, 2015), when it really was a natural increase, however, is very minor (can you say symbolic — only about 86 thousand for the three years). And all the other years were a net loss. The maximum net decline was recorded in the period 1999-2003 (thousands): 1999 — 929,63; 2000 — 958,53; 2001 — 943,25; 2002 — 935,31; 2003 — 888,53.
But data for recent years (thousands): 2017 — 134,46; 2018 — 218,39. By the end of 2019, as I noted above, we should expect a net loss of not less than 300 thousand.
If the sum of all the years, the total net decline in population over 1992-2018 years will be approximately 13.5 million people. This is equivalent to half of the casualties (soldiers and civilians) of our country during the great Patriotic war of 1941-1945 In the calculation of the average work year in human loss in the amount of half a million people. And that in the absence of war. In fact, the war goes on, but it is not hot and is not declared. But it is very lethal and destructive (on her destructive effect on the economy of Russia, I have already written).
So, the press-Secretary Dmitry Peskov said something wrong. It is not necessary to invent any “demographic pits” of the past. Russia since its inception, has hit the dreaded “demographic hole” and is in her forever for almost 28 years. And our citizens will continue to die in this “pit” (or “pot”). The government only pretends that she’s trying to eliminate the “demographic hole”. Either cannot or does not want.
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