The expert advises Ukrainians to be patient and keep the U.S. dollars, which “is now the best savings.”
In Ukraine began movement to the weakening of the hryvnia in the area 30-32 UAH/USD – the country is waiting for volatilna autumn. This was stated by managing partner of investment company Capital Times Eric Naiman. The expert advises Ukrainians to be patient and keep the U.S. dollars, which “is now the best savings.”
According to Naiman, in order to understand what will happen with the hryvnia this autumn, we need to see what exactly needs to happen in the near future. “First, in the spring of 2019 there will be presidential elections, and after them there may be parliamentary. Second – winter is coming (we put candles for the fact that it was warm), and then it becomes a question of purchase of imported gas and coal. To do this, Naftogaz will go to market and buy foreign currency”, – said the expert. In addition, we have purchase by importers of goods for the new year’s holiday sales, it is also billions of dollars, and also the demand for the currency.
“The fourth in 2019 will be the peak of payments on external debts, and the IMF does not give money. Fifth of money in the Ukrainian Treasury is almost gone – remains of a little more than 2 billion UAH, and it’s a penny. All because of a strong exchange rate of hryvnia, which has led to the fact that there was a shortfall of money in the state budget. The revenues from customs declined, while costs remain high,” adds Naiman.
According to him, on the one hand, the NBU understands that there is inflation and devaluation pressure on the hryvnia and the exchange rate of 30 UAH/USD would be optimal, but the fall of the national currency will inevitably untwist inflation. Therefore, the national Bank will contain the devaluation by raising the discount rate from 17.5% to 20-22% per annum. On the other hand, the Ministry of Finance with nothing to pay the expenditures on social programs and pay for other items, he concluded.
According to Nyman, to oppose these five points mi can only be a money of 7-8 million Ukrainian gastarbaiterov. “This is currently the main export product of Ukraine. It is these resources, and it is about $ 9 billion a year, we close the trade deficit that has developed over the past year,” – said the expert.
Now Ukraine is entering in the fall. Macroeconomic management of the country leaves much to be desired, too many situational interests, and in this case is 2019 elections, concluded Nyman. He adds that Turkey has had a record fall of the Lira and the Chinese authorities have systematically weaken the yuan.
“This is a bad sign for the hryvnia. The NBU will to resist, increasing the discount rate, but this will only aggravate the situation. The problem of artificially postpone to 2019, to resolve it I had the future President and government”, – the expert concludes.
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