The meeting between Kurt Volker and Vladislav Surkov for the deployment of peacekeepers in the Donbas may occur already in March of this year.
Another scenario to resolve the conflict in the Donbas than a peacekeeping mission, no. This is a priority scenario which can be implemented to begin in 2018. But there is one serious risk.
According to the expert, Moscow is trying to lobby for the so-called formula Steinmeier (former head of the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Germany – “24”), which provides for concessions to Russia in terms of security, in the version of the Kremlin – from fighters that must go in parallel with the implementation by Ukraine of the political part of Minsk agreements. Ukraine, as you know, at first insists on the implementation of security and then wants to discuss politics.
This principle Surkov is trying to lobby in the negotiations with Volker – the gradual introduction of peacekeepers in the Donbass. Obviously, such a decision may be voted in the UN security Council as a consensus, and then need approval of the mission’s mandate. At this stage Russia will require expansion of the mandate of peacekeepers in relation to the implementation by Ukraine of the political part of the “Minsk-2”. It’s a risk,– says Vasyl mokan.
According to the analyst, Ukraine can supply a choice that the introduction of peacekeepers will depend on the execution of the Minsk agreements. In particular, the adoption of the law on Amnesty of the fighters, the holding of local elections in ORDA, allotment of weapons and amendments to the Constitution – granting the occupied territories with special status. Control over the Ukrainian-Russian border, according to him, is essentially the last stage when Ukraine will fulfill all of political commitments.
If Ukraine does not agree to fulfill the political part of the “Minsk-2” as a condition for the imposition of the UN mission, then we can blame the failure of negotiations on the peacekeepers and the escalation of the conflict. But the US position of Ukraine in the negotiations will take into account and to lobby for our interests. Although without the consent of the Russian Federation or the decision of the UN mission nor the mandate in the security Council will not accept– like the mbca.
The analyst also adds that at the upcoming March meeting, Volcker and Surkov will address all possible points of contact on a compromise version of the UN resolution. Besides, he notes, published by the US so-called black “the Kremlin list” has already begun to take effect even before the official sanctions against specific individuals around Putin. So next time Russia will analyze all the risks for yourself, and see how this factor can become a factor of pressure on the negotiations in the format Walker-Surkov.
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