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The end record the shutdown in the US?

Чем кончится рекордный шатдаун в США?

Shutdown — a temporary reduction in the work of the Federal agencies for lack of budget, broke the historical record duration. And in the near future it hardly will end, as neither the White house nor the Capitol is not going to take positions.

The President, Donald trump continues to demand $ 5.6 billion on border security and the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico and refuses to sign the budget without this article. Democrats won control in the house of representatives of the new convocation of the Congress, don’t want to hear about the wall and called the crisis “artificial”.

Trump reflects on the introduction of a state of emergency on the border to circumvent Congress and try to Finance the wall. But this step will be immediately challenged in court, with uncertain consequences for the administration, and to spoil relations with Congress in the future.

The longest shutdown to date occurred in December 1995 — January 1996 and lasted 21 days. The current shutdown, which lasts from 22 December 2018, has now entered its 23rd day.

This is the third shutdown for the year. This time it is limited to the volume is affected only 25% of the ministries and agencies, although some important ones such as the state Department, DHS, DOJ and even a large part of the White house.

About 800 thousand civil servants or work without pay (if their job is deemed critical to national security), or sent on forced unpaid leave. However, all expect that, ultimately, Congress will reimburse their losses retroactively. Much worse account for those who hired government contract they just don’t get paid, and compensation is not promised.

The budget is also losing significant amounts of money, said the Agency RIA Novosti Roy Myers, Professor of political science and public policy at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County: “Lost valuable services, which have a power.”

His colleague, Professor George Washington University Samuel Hoff, explains: “In the short term, the shutdown will affect the lives of individuals. As for the long-term impact on the economy… within the Executive branch there are agencies, called public corporations that have closed their offices.”

For example, the U.S. mail provides a number of services have reduced the number of employees, he says. Another example is the Management of the Tennessee valley, created during the great depression the Agency, which generates electricity for several States in the Southeast United States. He also had to make adjustments in the work. “The government will lose revenues from those departments and agencies that are trying to make money,” said Hoff.

In Washington, the shutdown is almost not felt. Everything works, except for some institutions. Stores this year offer very big discounts after the New year, trying to attract those civil servants who sit around all day, but I hope the reimbursement of the salary and therefore are not afraid to spend money with credit cards.

Worse for the contractors who just left without a source of income. “I’m already three weeks have not been paid. The Outlook is bleak,” says one of the contract employees of the National institutes of health.

President trump is trying to convince voters and Congress that the wall (or steel barrier) on the border with Mexico is absolutely essential. He has already visited the border, where he enlisted the support of law enforcement officers in the field. Trump also made an appeal to the nation, where literally intimidated the voters with examples of terrible crimes committed by illegal immigrants.

The President demonstrates his trademark emotion — and can be, carefully cultivated the image of an unpredictable policy. At the next meeting with Democrats in the White house trump just slammed the door when he once again stated that the walls will not. And about the suffering of the civil servants, the President said in the sense that most of them, they say, still support Democrats.

However, speaker Nancy Pelosi no wonder for more than 15 years by Democrats in Congress. Loud gestures of the President, it won’t budge. On appeal, she answered his own speech in which he said that certain crimes immigrants are not statistics, and trump with their hands creates an artificial and unnecessary crisis with the wall.

Presidential slamming the door on Democrats, too, did not bother. The house of representatives, chaired by Pelosi has already adopted a number of laws aimed at financing institutions and payment of salary arrears. Republicans in the Senate yet these laws are not passed that allows the Democrats to blame the opponents of violating the interests of workers.

No matter how blamed each other trump and Democrats, someone will have to give first, either side will compromise, fixing the mutual loss. Usually shutdown lead to a decline in the popularity of both parties and Congress in General, and, of course, the President.

“Shutdown does President Trump more harm than the Democrats. This is unusual because the President controls the media, and this often allows him to beat the Congress in such situations”, — told RIA Novosti David Lublin, Professor at American University in Washington and an expert on public administration.

“However, the President of trump very publicly took the credit — or blame — for the shutdown. In addition, the entire shutdown is based on the requirement of the President of trump to build a wall along the entire border with Mexico, which is unpopular among Americans,” — said Sablin.

Polls show that most blame the Republicans and only slightly more than 30% Democrats, and this is less than the number of voters trump, he said. In addition, from his point of view, the Democrats seem “older”, successfully portraying the requirements of trump as a whim.

As noted by Professor Hoff, in this situation, vulnerable not so much trump and the Democrats as some Republicans. The list of Republicans in the Senate, concerned about a prolonged shutdown, is almost identical to the list of those who will have to be re-elected in 2020. They are afraid of falling of his popularity, he said. “I think that they are the first to give up the slack and become the most vulnerable,” says Professor Hoff.

The political scientist Roy Meyers agrees with this point of view. “The most vulnerable policy terms of falling popularity — it’s some Republican senators who cooperate with the leader (of the faction) Mitch McConnell, preventing a vote on the bills that could open the institutions,” he said.

Trump is “trump card” in his sleeve: he can try to declare a state of emergency on the border, citing national security. In this case, the administration may try to circumvent Congress and take the money on the wall from the budget are financed by ministries. Rumor has it that the administration wants to “scrape the bottom of the barrel” in the budget of the engineering corps of the land forces and even to utilize the funds allocated for recovery after the hurricane of the island of Puerto Rico.

However, such a move will still hit as a boomerang upon himself to Trump. Democrats have claimed that will give such a decision in court, and the victory of the President in court is not guaranteed.

“My prediction is this: if the President trump and his administration are not pereformuliruem their arguments on the southern border, making much more than before, emphasis on the military aspect and the aspect of national security, they will lose in the courts,” said Mr. Hoff.

The analyst cited analogy with several other high-profile cases on national security, where the Executive branch as a result lost the argument. “The humanitarian aspect, which the President added in his televised address, has only weakened his position at court, although, of course, I agree that in a crisis this aspect there,” he added.

And Hoff and Myers agree that the shutdown likely will last as long as trump is still not decide to declare a state of emergency, because the other way to save face he has none. In addition, they warn that bypass Congress is fraught. Parliamentarians, including the party of trump, I remember perfectly that they are not subject to the President and that in their hands is all the funding activities of the Executive. They will have more many possibilities to force trump to regret the unilateral steps.

“Shutdown will for some time continue, if only trump did not declare a state of emergency and then declare that he is ready to sign the bill on the opening (institutions), although it will create a big problem in working with Congress on future funding,” notes Myers.

The trump is clearly not suffering from shutdown and doesn’t feel cramped to them. The current President of the USA acts according to his instincts and not the advice of the approximate and the departure of many White house staff on forced leave did not a burden. As told to the newspaper the Wall Street Journal, an unnamed administration official, “the President will hardly notice the empty tables in the West wing”.

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