The main part of Russians do not feel any improvement since 2008, and Russia are already preparing for the economic crisis in 2020. According to analysts, it will be the result of the fall of the world economy and will be much longer and more difficult than the previous one. Russia’s problems will exacerbate foreign pressure, internal social problems and the approach of the transit of power in 2024.
What could cause the economic crisis in Russia in 2020
Despite the relative isolation of the Russian economy due to sanctions, it is not so much independent to protect themselves from a new wave of crisis, which, according to experts, will cover the world in 2020.
Raw material prices in the international market are falling, and with them the revenues of the Russian budget. The money supply in the world economy decreases, a trade war is gaining momentum in yields is observed inversion, the global economy is slowing.
These global factors in Russia are added and internal:
- since 2008, the Russian GDP has not returned to pre-recession levels, and 2014 is reduced faster;
- the debt load of the population has reached catastrophic volumes, and the constant lower level of income, the number of bad loans and bankruptcies are increasing;
- foreign capital take from the Russian market because of its instability and susceptibility of sanction threats, the amount sold by non-residents of Russian assets in 2019 is approaching 80 billion US dollars;
- due to sanction restrictions of Russia blocked access to cheap credit money abroad;
- the fall in oil prices has a negative impact on the ruble, and its growth is almost not supports it;
- state windfall from commodity exports are directed to the reserve Fund, not to the economic modernization of the country;
- sanctions, though slowly, but ruthlessly stifle the Russian economy and the abolition of them is not yet planned.
The consequences of the economic crisis in Russia in 2020 to the citizens
Most from the Russian crisis affected ordinary citizens. The economic elite have secured themselves a powerful supply of money, exported abroad, and political – savings in the national welfare Fund.
The rest of the Russians in the event of a crisis awaits:
- the growth of rates on mortgage and other loans;
- the loss of deposits placed on accounts of Russian banks, many of which go bankrupt;
- reduction of wage and number of jobs;
- freezing of pension contributions;
- cancellation of social assistance programmes, benefits, subsidies, awards and grants;
- the increase in the tax burden in small and medium business;
- the rapid growth of prices;
- the depreciation of the ruble.
The Russians have repeatedly faced such difficulties, but to resist them is getting smaller.
The position of the authorities in the preparation of the economic crisis in Russia in 2020
The Russian authorities know of the impending crisis. This is evidenced by large-scale purchases of foreign currency and gold, by which they hope to live through it as painlessly as possible.
But in relation to its own citizens, the Russian government prefers a completely namadashi measures. May have a maximum pressure on the people and the authorities hope to teach him to endure hardship after the crisis.
So on the eve of the economic crisis, the Russian authorities:
- raise the retirement age;
- increase taxes;
- increasing pressure on business, which is the main source of jobs;
- rigidly suppress any protests;
- carefully adjust the statistics to make her performance is optimistic.
Experts believe that such measures are not able to stimulate the economy, and can only finally destroy her. However, officials are much more concerned about the accumulation of reserves, which will allow them to survive the crisis and to ensure a smooth transfer of power in 2024.
Military capacity will be useful in case of economic and social problems will escalate into armed conflict.
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.