The industrial optimism index, which calculates the Gaidar Institute, in the third quarter fell to its lowest level in six months. Russian industry, in her own estimates, “faced with the most significant for the recent decrease in demand”, experts of the Institute. Now sales volumes are satisfied with no more than 60% of enterprises.
Starting from April and the introduction of new us sanctions against Russia, the forecasts for demand are at the level of the worst values from mid-2016. This “sustained pessimism”, which was not a few years, says head of the laboratory of surveys of the Gaidar Institute Sergey Tsukhlo. Weak demand in August has forced the company to lower selling prices, but in September, under pressure from the devaluation they grew up.
The decline in economic optimism occurs in the context of devaluation. In order to increase investments, the majority of industrial companies of Russia needs a strong ruble, found at the Gaidar Institute. Almost two thirds (63%) of industrial enterprises in need of strengthening of the ruble to reduce costs, and half (54%) the growth rate of the national currency will help attract investment, showed the survey of 650 Russian enterprises.
Heaviest devaluation has hit light industry, food industry and machine building, which focused on the domestic market, according to RBC. Estimates of the Gaidar Institute, the most in the strengthening of the ruble for the growth of investment needs just the food industry – 81% of the surveyed companies from this sector if you want growth of national currency. High demand for strong ruble has demonstrated a lightweight (67% of companies) and forestry (61%).
Weak ruble, in turn, a profitable oil and gas companies and steelmakers, which export a significant share of production, getting a part of revenues in foreign currency.
To start a new investment cycle, companies are not ready not only because of the weakening of the ruble, but also due to satisfactory investment results of the third quarter, the report of the Gaidar Institute. In General, the results of the past three months (they take into account not only investments, but also, for example, the volume of sales), the Industrialists were disappointed, the outcome of this period they rated worse than the same period of 2017.
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