The current government can not wait for a tranche of the IMF, analysts

Experts from large investment banks do not exclude the risk of tacit stop the program of crediting of Ukraine.

Negotiations on the completion of the fourth review of the loan program between Ukraine and the International monetary Fund is likely to be rescheduled for the fall. On Tuesday, July 10.

“Given that the Parliament has only one week for the amendment of notice of appeal to the law on Higher anti-corruption court (WACHS), we see a risk that the negotiations on the fourth review of the EFF program will be rescheduled for September, when Parliament and the IMF will return from summer holidays,” reads the report Morgan Stanley.

Analysts Merrill Lynch believe that Ukraine without the support of the IMF will be able to maintain macroeconomic stability until the end of the election cycle in 2019.

The cost of such support will be around $5-6 billion from the reserves of the National Bank. Thus, the new government for future service payments on external obligations in any case will have to negotiate with the IMF.

The baseline scenario Merrill Lynch suggests that Ukraine still be able to get the next tranche of the Fund in the third quarter of 2018.

According to analysts ICU, the Central Bank is unlikely to reduce the level of reserves below three months of imports.

ICU experts predict that the Ukrainian authorities will ensure the completion of the next review of the EFF program in early fall and in October can enter the next credit tranche. Meanwhile, like other experts, they do not exclude the risk of tacit stop the program.

Note, that Ukraine is more of the fifth tranche of the IMF. Earlier, the national Bank once again shifted the timing of any tranche at the beginning of autumn, before the matter was about the middle of summer.

The Ministry of Finance does not consider a scenario in which Ukraine could not get the fifth tranche of the IMF.

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