The government has calculated two scenarios for the economy of Ukraine – optimistic and pessimistic.
The Cabinet has calculated optimistic and pessimistic macroeconomic scenarios in connection with the blockade of Donbass, according to the latest hryvnia to the end of the year may lose 5,6 hryvnia against the dollar.
About it writes the Economic truth with reference to scripts, trapped in her possession.
According to the pessimistic scenario, GDP will fall by 2.5 percent, and the impact on nominal GDP will be minus 39 billion hryvnia. Inflation will add 8.5 PP In this case, the hryvnia by the end of 2017 year lose of 5.6 UAH per dollar and amount to about 32 per dollar.
Due to the devaluation of revenues from import VAT will cover the expected shortfall of this tax from the reduction of imports. The same metamorphosis can happen with the import duty.
It is expected that the fall of the hryvnia will be a major budget expansion.
Excluding exchange rate fluctuations, the budget will lose about 10 milliard USD, but if the hryvnia will fall, according to government estimates, the state collected 14.8 billion hryvnias of taxes more. As a result, the budget income will come in plus 3.9-4.7 billion hryvnias.
As for the optimistic scenario, it assumes that the pace of economic development in 2017 will slow to 1.2 percent, nominal GDP will decline by 25.8 billion, and inflation will accelerate to 1.8 p. p.
In addition, the blockade will exert pressure on the hryvnia. By the end of 2017, the national currency can weaken another 3 of the hryvnia against the dollar.
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