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The boycott was a success — and from war

Бойкот удался — и сразу запахло войной

The ring of sanctions around Iran is collapsing and oil prices, contrary to forecasts, has not risen. Increasing only the probability of the largest in the twenty-first century fighting.

There are reports that a second round of anti-Iranian oil embargo, which began in early may (the first round was launched in November last year), successfully solves us leadership tasks. Not only the Japanese and Koreans, but the Chinese and Indians, breaking pride, curtail procurement in Iran, and switch to Arabian oil. Economic club of the United States was heavy enough to impress even these political and economic giants.

A year ago, Iran has exported 2.7 million barrels. in the day and was the third after Russia and Saudi Arabia neatorama power in the world. Now his supplies are down to 0,5—0,7 million barrels. American promises to reduce Iranian oil revenues to zero and now seem an exaggeration, but not that big. If at its peak in 2017 and total export revenues of Iran reached $100 billion (two — thirds for the sale of energy), the reduction in 2020 to $30-40 billion now looks fantastic.

I can endure such penance of Iran? In a short period of time, certainly, but if it lasts long, it is rather no than Yes. Residents of the 83 millionth of the power used at least to prosperity. Three-quarters of Iranians live in cities, many modern standards of dwelling have become the norm for them. Radical belt-tightening, the disappearance of familiar things, a falling currency, galloping inflation, high unemployment, already high, is not what they expect. Moreover, the theocratic regime over the past forty years fed up with them.

If you look at the same on the American side, and in General of the countries — oil consumers, the disappearance of the Iran oil trading with the world card while held them safely. As you know, the forecasters of oil prices is almost always wrong. And this case was no exception. Promised a worldwide panic and a large price spike, and oil almost did not move — and keeps about $70 per barrel Brent. It seems that the current oil market is ready to withstand the care not only of Libya and Venezuela, but such export giant like Iran.

It turns out that the world could quite easily forget about Iran, but Iran about the world — no. Therefore, these regimes simply cannot sit idly by. He will almost certainly have to do something.

Rather, a pause to take a still possible. In 2020, the US presidential elections, in which it is theoretically possible to replace trump any new version iranlibya Obama.

But before the inauguration of the next American President more than six years. So long, indulging in dreams, it will be difficult. But wait, increasing efforts on the usual areas — hastily constructing the atomic bomb, pitting Hamas and Hezbollah on Israelis and strengthening a zone of influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq — then with a high probability of incurring the attacks of the US and Israel. That is a major war. The extent to which, if it is carried out with full dedication, we can surpass all that in the last two decades has happened with Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. After all, Iran is more than all of them put together, and the better armed.

Another option would be to peace negotiations with the United States, the desirability of which has repeatedly made it clear in Washington. It is sometimes said that the United States gushing of ultimatums and expect a serious agreement with them, even when the Iranian good will, is not necessary.

Yes, the style of tramp of the administration of the originality. But she’s hardly considered desirable by the great war, and hardly ready for it — what’s morally, financially. After all, just before Willy-nilly to send to the Iranian coast carrier battle group, trump tried (though unsuccessfully) to keep his election promise isolationist and withdraw from Syria, American troops. To pull in new troops instead of the old politically difficult, let alone use them.

With the anti-Iranian embargo, the head of Americans and his team believed, as usual, only one move ahead, and the transformation of that event into the war just wasn’t thinking. It is a surprise for them. It is also important that trump loves the personal contact with exotic people and for addition to its collection Dating meeting with President Hassan Rouhani, apparently, would be willing to pay serious indulgences. Although promotion in the Eastern Mediterranean to the Iranian Empire and its nuclear project for any would have to freeze.

It’s hard to imagine another — what is going on Iran. In the soul of President Rouhani may not be refused. But the first face of the Islamic Republic — Supreme leader and Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He is the last word in all matters, and it works in conjunction with military and ideological-police wing of the regime, the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps, with its superpolynomially and business interests in all spheres, from the economy to missile and nuclear development to a foreign special operations (a division of al-Quds). Retreat to America will be deprived of the meaning of their existence.

Device Iran is not quite totalitarian, there is more flow and structure. The deterioration of the situation and the inevitable change of the persons (Rahbar Khamenei this summer will mark the eighty), the balance of power may change, but unlikely right now.

So right now implemented the most simple — blackmail Arabian oil traders, backed by dosed against their shares of the oil fields and shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Red sea. At the pumping stations open fire with unidentified drones, ships from the Arabian shores of the flash for unknown reasons, the Iranian military shrug and the Saudi king on Thursday and on Friday will convene a conference of Arab friends in the hope for armed support.

Of all the possible paths to the great war this is the shortest. To block the oil exports of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Iranians threatened regularly. Until now it has always been a bluff. Even the current military operations in its effect is small and is intended to play on the nerves. But if they inadvertently or intentionally will rise to the level of a real war, the involvement in it of Americans also inevitable.

Such a war, it is, I repeat, may become the largest in the twenty-first century needs neither Europe, nor China or India — they will at least cut off from fuel supplies. Not at the time she and America didn’t see it coming, going quite our way to solve difficulties as they arise. Iran is also better to do without colliding with those who are stronger. The war will pass him on the rink. But his people are unlikely to meekly endure an embargo and can ask for its elite. And the top doesn’t want to pay for the cancellation of the boycott of the rejection of cherished superproject. Jump in the war can show her the way out of the impasse.

If you take all near and far participants in this story, you willing to truly fight, even today in the minority. But the concentration of improvisers is so great that the event output from the control looks possible. Maybe the chances of fifty — on

 

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