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The black Swan of oil. Russia?

Чёрный лебедь нефти. Россия всё?

So, friends, today there will be a post on an interesting and important subject that is happening now with Russia. I think that even apolitical people have noticed that in recent days, the Russian ruble slipped, and at the moment the dollar rate in Russia is 75 rubles — although more recently the rate has been 60 to 63 of the ruble.

Laugh attempts television propagandists somehow “explain” to the people that say everything is under control, we have “economy in rubles and not in dollars” — friends, actually this is the “economy” and sank, and absolutely all the same what to measure — in dollars, in euros or in parrots. Fell purchasing power (its ability to be exchanged for a certain amount of goods and services) — this means that sank the entire economy as a whole. What happened actually? There are a whole range of reasons, which I will discuss in this post. It is obvious that Russia is now in a deep crisis, and what you see today is only the beginning, so to speak the tip of the iceberg.

So in today’s post — a story about what is happening with Russia and thought about what all this looks like. Make sure you check out the article below, write in the comments your opinion, well to friends to add do not forget) And telegram channel also subscribe.

The fall in oil prices.

One of the reasons for the fall of the Russian ruble is falling oil prices — as a result of trading that took place on Monday, oil prices in Asian markets have fallen more than 30%. OPEC failed to agree on production cuts, causing Saudi Arabia, which is an OPEC member, announced the official reduction of prices on oil. In addition, the Saudis have offered good discounts to those who will sign with them long-term contracts — what else lowered the price of oil.

It is nothing like the so-called “black Swan” for the Russian economy. This term was offered by American philosopher and trader Nassim Taleb mainly to refer difficult to predict events that have significant consequences. For the Russian economy and budget, which calculated if not growth, then at least the preservation of relatively high oil prices — this reduction is the real “black Swan” with unpredictable consequences.

The war in Syria.

Чёрный лебедь нефти. Россия всё?

Another important point, which also affects the depreciation of the ruble and General unattractiveness (“toxicity”) of Russia for investors is the war in Syria, where Putinism was involved to support the Assad regime in the old Soviet habit while continuing to support all sorts of tyrants, cannibals and drunks from the first apartment entrance. Lately in the war involved Turkey, and Assad troops and Russian “itemname” are in Syria heavy losses — live with the destruction of Russian military equipment Turkish drones spread all over the world.

War is a huge expenditure item for the Russian budget, plus the support of the dictator Assad, Russia does not add any advantages, quite the contrary — makes the country’s economy and more toxic.

International lawsuits. Constitution.

And then the trial began on March 9 in the Hague initiated a trial in the Netherlands downed “Boeing” despite the Russian propaganda, many Dutch and other European countries well know, of whose weapons were actually downed the aircraft, which promises for Russia serious problems at the international level.

And then there’s changes in the Russian Constitution on the way — on 22 April, the day of the 150th anniversary forever living grandfather Lenin, the ideological mastermind of all the Bolsheviks, anti-Westerners, Stalinists, readers of books about popadantsev, quilted jackets and Putinists — appointed to vote on changes to the Constitution, which offers “reset the presidential terms” and re-select young and full of energy updated Putin on the Russian throne — which is already sitting there longer than Brezhnev.

What it sounds like.

Чёрный лебедь нефти. Россия всё?

And I know what it’s like? To me personally everything that happens in Russia is very similar to the last years of the Soviet Union — the war in Afghanistan, the same depreciation of oil and the same “non-rate leader.” We can only guess how it ends this time.

Such cases.

Write in the comments what you think about all this, I wonder.

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