The official US dollar rate set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from June 16, increased by 1.27 rubles to 70,395 ruble. Thus, the single European currency was up 62 pennies, and tomorrow it will 79,1451 of the ruble.
As noted by the head of Department of the analysis of banks and money market IK “VELES Capital” Yuri Kravchenko, “in the beginning of the new week in global markets continued flight from risk”. “The concern of investors is still associated with the risks of the second wave of the pandemic and its consequences for the global economy. In particular, in one of the districts of Beijing because of the new cases were introduced the “wartime mode”,” — said in the review expert.
In this case the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich said that “the care of the nearest futures for oil of mark Brent below $ 38 and the decline in most currencies of developing countries will lead to the predominance of sales in the ruble and the dollar/ruble to continue its upward trend, which began Thursday, and to consolidate in the range of 70-75 rubles.”
We also recall that the Russian national currency since the beginning of this year has significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Strong pressure on the rouble had a General panic in the financial markets due to the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and concerns about its impact on the global economy, and a collapse in oil prices.
Thus, a strong devaluation of the Russian currency occurred on March 7 on the international Forex market, after the day before the deal collapsed OPEC+, — countries of the Alliance are unable to agree on cutting oil production, nor of the extension of the deal for a longer period (1 April 2020). Then, on March 9, 2020, the financial and oil markets suffered “black Monday”, and on 18 March, the market embraced a “black Wednesday” with yet another collapse of oil prices, the Russian national currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has updated (at the time) a record low against the dollar and Euro since February of 2016, 81 and 88 million, respectively.
We add that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in may 2020 rose by 3.8% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real rate of the ruble against the dollar rose during this period by 4.7%, to Euro — on 3,8%. However, for the first 5 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble fell by 7.8%, and the dollar — by 9.9%, and the Euro by 9.7%.
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