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The Americans will try to bring down Russia’s oil sector in the Iranian scenario

Американцы постараются обрушить российский нефтегазовый сектор по иранскому сценарию

The United States can enter the “Iranian” sanctions against the oil and gas sector. That such a possibility exists, according to the report “the state of the world”, prepared by experts of the Diplomatic Academy of the foreign Ministry.

In it, in particular, specifies that the revision of Washington’s unilateral policy priorities and arrangements, as well as increasing pressure on Tehran and European partners, “raises questions about the possible consequences of the application of stricter sanctions against Iran to Russia.”

The authors of the report believe that this may impact primarily on Russian oil and gas sector.

It is also noted that the United States will continue to tighten its sanctions, using them as a lever for political pressure and driving, thus, conflict. Therefore, experts recommend that Russian diplomats conducted on international platforms — the UN, the G20 and the WTO — a policy of condemnation of using economic restrictions as a hidden form of protectionism.

In fact, us sanctions against Iran, including the Iranian oil and gas sector, have already forty years. And store the report with the decree of President Jimmy Carter from 1979, which was halted purchases of Iranian oil, frozen Iranian deposits in U.S. banks, and foreign branches, and also banned the sale to Iran of spare parts for military equipment.

Since then, sanctions against Iran have repeatedly corrected — part of the prohibitions were canceled, and the other tightened, they introduced new restrictions.

Even the “nuclear deal” with Iran, concluded in 2015 with the six powers — the US, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia, did not become a pretext for the abolition of restrictive measures against Iran from Washington. And after President Donald trump broke the agreement unilaterally, the sanctions pressure on the Islamic Republic has intensified.

At the moment the object of us sanctions in Iran is the oil industry (which is particularly painful for a country where oil is the main source of foreign currency funds), banking, shipbuilding, Maritime transport, metallurgy — in General, the same restrictions apply to more than 600 individuals and companies.

Russia in Washington, apparently, is also still considered a “country gas station”, “whose economy depends on oil and gas”, as they said at the time, the late Senator McCain. And then, indeed, it would be logical to strike at the “very sick” according to the oil and gas sector. What, in General, they do already, trying by all hook and crook to stop the implementation of the project “Northern stream — 2”.

But how will work here Iranian templates?

— Given what is happening in Washington, of course, to exclude anything it is impossible, — commented the senior scientific employee of Institute of social Sciences of Ranepa Sergey Bespalov. But still I think this option is unlikely. Because, in order to impose sanctions, we must expect that they will be fulfilled.

Americans just can not understand that Russia has long-term contracts. A number of countries, including the European Union depends heavily on imports of Russian hydrocarbons.

So, what would be the sanctions were not introduced — not only in the short term, but perhaps in the long term, the buyers of our resources, in principle, will not be able to refuse them. Or replace something else.

We are talking about Germany, other EU countries, we are talking about China, etc.

What would sanctions are not threatened buyers of Russian oil and gas, they will be forced somehow to spoil relations with the Americans, but to give up on Russian energy is lethal to them. It just means to destroy their own economy.

I did not mention that, of course, China, to which Russia also recently became the largest supplier of energy resources, for obvious reasons (not only economic but also political) will not succumb to such pressure. Although from transactions with Iran in the energy sector, Beijing is largely refuses now.

But, in any case, whether we are talking about China, whether we are talking about the countries of the European Union, they cannot do without Russian energy resources. Therefore, the assertions of the possibility of such sanctions, I seem to be simply unfounded.

I repeat: even considering the mess that now prevails in Washington, the anti-Russian hysteria, and the fact that Republicans and Democrats in some situations competing for part of the new anti-Russian initiatives to impose sanctions that have no chance to be implemented, it would be pretty weird.

“SP”: — But they are trying sanctions to put pressure on the participants of the project “Northern stream-2”, although I understand, perhaps, that it is unlikely that it will stop…

Americans, on the one hand, interested in the fact that in the long term to increase the domestic supply — primarily gas and maybe oil in the EU countries. On the other hand, to harm Russia and to prevent the increase of Russian energy exports to European countries.

Here we are talking about the construction of new pipelines. And, above all, of the pipeline “Nord stream-2”. Although at one time, attempts were made to disrupt and “Turkish stream”, etc.

On whether to impose sanctions in respect of existing oil and gas pipelines, out of the question. And, I think, for the reasons I have mentioned already and can’t go.

Yes, Poland and some other countries of Central and Eastern Europe partly pereorientirovanija for purchases of American energy resources. But all this is not possible across the EU. It is impossible for the largest European economies, primarily Germany.

“SP”: — Why?

— First, for technical reasons, given the orientation of the entire infrastructure in the Russian oil and gas pipelines. Then, the Americans have simply no appropriate volumes of oil and gas, and it is unlikely they will appear in the future. Not to mention the fact that the shift of the largest economies of the EU countries at a relatively expensive American oil and gas would mean a loss of their European global economic competitiveness. It those Germans just can’t afford to go.

But most importantly, I repeat that in a visible future it’s just technically impossible — is so dense we have that kind of interdependence with the Europeans and Chinese in this area.

No us sanctions on the Iranian variant — ie, attempts to block oil exports from the country through sanctions, not only against the supplier (potentially, Russia), but also in respect of customers — EU and China — do not have the slightest chance to be fulfilled. And so, apparently, will not be introduced. This would mean for Americans final own discredit…

“SP”: — is it possible to say that today our economy is less dependent on exports than before?

— Of course, some achievements in the development of non-oil and gas exports. But, of course, in the long term, our economy remains very dependent on hydrocarbons.

If you imagine that the energy exports of Russia blocked, then a few years we would have lasted, say, due to the considerable resources accumulated by our government. But even in three to four to five years it would be a huge blow. Because, by and large, to reorient our economy to change the structure of our exports still haven’t managed. The momentum achieved, they are completely insignificant, in my opinion, and non-oil exports is still fairly modest.

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