A dream come true ideologues statehood: the multipolarity of the planet is escalating. Every success turns into a loss for our country.
A year ago I wrote about what a multipolar world, contrary to the hopes of our foreign policy thinkers, from Primakov to Lavrov, Russia is unprofitable.
In the era of the so-called unilateralism when Americans behaved like the leaders, if not of all mankind, then at least its half decent job on the planet was much easier. If only because of the stability rules of the game. The United States carefully carried the burden of superpower, understood that it must pay, and for the sake of world order had lost not only friends but more often to competitors. The Chinese, for example.
In the current decade, all that began to crumble. And with especial rapidity — the last couple of years. The event the world map did not appear so many new colors all at once. Putin’s Russia began, not looking for anyone to play by their own rules, one of the first. So was produced the Crimea. But today the powers-players, of which each is itself the head, was a lot.
The most meaningful that one of them became trompowsky America. Economic war with China or, say, the oil boycott of Iran is the activities undertaken by it without the consent of the friends and partners. On the contrary, in spite of their lamentations. The idea that now every man for himself, takes possession of the minds on all continents, albeit at different speeds.
What does it give Russia?
First, an incremental portion of unpredictability. The oil price suddenly falls from $70 to $60 per barrel, though, had to jump, because the oil exports of Iran are almost blocked. But the American pressure on China, with no one agreed upon scale of which shocked the world, led to the global economic surprise. This fight without rules nothing like the careful maneuvers tramp predecessors unipolar era. And powers oil traders, including us, can only watch from the sidelines, carrying the loss and hoping that in some of the next rounds of oil price in the same order in a sudden climb up.
But in addition induced losses, our regime is voluntary. Due to a quarrel with America, and in anticipation of its sanctions last year, the state of dollar reserves on a massive scale was translated into yuan. With all due respect to this currency, a deliberate reduction of its rate is one of the main tools in a trade war with Washington, Beijing. Last spring, in the midst of the exchange of dollars for yuan, the dollar was worth less than 6.3 yuan, and now it is more expensive than the 6.9. That is the great exchange has reduced this part of the Russian reserves by nearly one-tenth.
The Beijing, of course, will not reward Moscow for what it voluntarily and with a loss increased their addicted to it. In a unipolar world is the Junior partner of a superpower could have expected from her some kind of award for support. In the world multi-polar realpolitik reigns — if someone played poorly and they can push around, you can be sure that they will necessarily be pushed around.
Under the same angle it is necessary to look at the alleged delivery of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems s-400 to Turkey and Iran.
Ankara is playing with Moscow and Washington as a cat with two mice: what would be the result of the system, Russian or American, she chose, it will be made on an extremely favorable material and political conditions. The world is multipolar, Turkey is no longer a vassal of America, but a vassal of Russia, full of energy, this country certainly will not, no matter how much we may cluck TV.
As to Iran, it would be nice if transmitted via Bloomberg denials about anti-aircraft missile deal with him turned out to be true. The fee for a military cooperation with Tehran is very high and no advance can not be assessed. This would just close a local mode, and without the slightest hope of money and a thank-you. The Islamic Republic is inherently unable to be anyone’s satellite and play someone else’s game but their own.
The Russian satellite is part of the Maduro regime. But friendship with him is not just throwing money to the wind. It is also a progressive divergence with the more important countries of Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina. Each of them has its own growing capabilities, and behave around their borders like the action is happening in the good old unipolar world, so forget that dream of Primakov came true and every major country is now herself a pole and therefore are capable of unexpected actions.
The wisest thing would be to follow the Chinese aphorism about the fact that distant water cannot extinguish the close fire, to stop teasing by a whole team of big States and finally provide mazurowski mode myself. Rumors about this broadcasts The Wall Street Journal, and even trump has reproduced them in Twitter. The Kremlin immediately denied. And now no one knows whether the cost of this considerations of secrecy or willingness to continue a losing gamble.
You can, of course, to say that since today all against all, it raised a military force of Russia is just the generic argument corresponding to the spirit of our multi-polar time.
But it is useful to know the balance of the world. In 2018, according to estimates by SIPRI, the most famous expert service in this area, the Russian military spending ($61 billion) was sixth in the world and amounted to 3.4% of the world ($1.8 trillion). I admit that SIPRI something underestimated and the actual expenditure amounted to $70-80 billion (4% of the world). In this case, our country is not the sixth, and third.
However, even if so, Russian spending is still hopelessly behind the us ($649 billion) and China ($250 billion). Last year alone, global military spending increased by fifty billion dollars. More than half of this increase occurred in the United States, more than a quarter in China. To increase its military capabilities to such an extent, Russia can not in principle — not the size of the economy.
This knowledge would have to seek a more modest role on the planet than was the USSR, even while maintaining global americanocentrism in the spirit of the 90’s and zero. And in today’s multicolored and multipolar world — even more so. Try to keep any leads on all continents — so do not understand that a strong and daring players in the world and likely to step on the feet of one of them, and even several, is growing all the time.
Gambling in great power in today’s global atmosphere, firstly, absurdly risky and unprofitable, and secondly, all clearly angry ordinary people. The more impressive of drug addiction to her higher authorities.
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.
