Once the new year holidays, Belarusian and Russian authorities meet once complex negotiations.
Now it’s not just the price of oil or gas, and the change in tax legislation in Russia, which will cause damage to the Belarusian economy billions of dollars in the coming years.
Trade, tariff and information warfare, which the Russian government for more than two decades waging against the Belarusian people are unlikely to surprise anyone in Russia and Belarus. And it is not surprising that looking at this situation from the outside, the governments of various countries are expressing their bewilderment.
If we consider the situation not through the prism of human relations of Russia and Belarus, in purely economic terms, it appears that the Belarusian economy has always brought economic benefits for Russia. The Byelorussian SSR was also the donor of the budget of the USSR.
After all the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the balance of trade between the two countries have always been in favor of Russia at least five billion dollars a year. This is the benefit that received the Russian economy for two decades.
However, the Russian propagandists argue that if Russia sold Belarus oil and gas is much more expensive, twirling not 300-500% profit, and 600-100%, it would have received much more. These “lot more” in Russia and is considered the loss of profits.
Naturally, to compensate for a negative trade balance with Russia is only possible by trading with other countries or to negotiate with Russia on the alignment of the trade balance.
If to consider from Russia’s economic pressure on Belarus, it is becoming evident the following facts:
1. For the Russian economy there is no economic benefit to squeeze additional profit from the Belarusian economy, given that Russia is an economic sponsor of the Western economy. So according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Russia’s international reserves amount to 460 billion dollars, and it is nearly two the state budget of the Russian state.
The Belarusian economy the last two years shows a slight increase of about 3%, on the background of Russia’s economy, whose growth fluctuates around 1% and according to the plans of the Russian government in the coming decades, growth will remain minimal. This means that the Russian government plans to Finance the economy of Western countries, instead of his own.
The standard of living in Belarus has increased in recent years and in some parameters exceeds the standard of living in Russia. And it’s not just wages, but lower housing prices.
The Russian authorities over the past decades deliberately rebuilds the Russian economy from the industrial commodity. Over the past twenty years, Russia had destroyed more than 70 thousand plants and factories.
Russian authorities can understand, because against the background of falling living standards of population in Russia, the growth of welfare in Belarus looks irritant for the Russians, who do not understand why their standard of living is constantly falling, in the richest country in the world.
Raw material economy of Russia, which built capitalism and one of the world’s highest level of stratification of the population into rich and poor and the industrial economy in Belarus, where social justice is observed to coexist in a single economic space can hardly.
Because strangulation of the Belarusian economy to Russian level becomes the main goal of the Russian leadership.
If someone thinks that there is something new, something very wrong. Not much more than a hundred years ago the Russian elites, as among present-day children, the palaces and the capital was in the West, and the people lived in poverty.
So in the first world war the Russian Tsar, Nicholas II because of the shortage of shells sent Russian soldiers to die for France in exchange for shells, which was already talked about at what level was the industry of Russia.
It is difficult to say whether the Belarusian leadership to negotiate with the Russian authorities or not, obviously only one thing we need to think how to live independently, developing its own industry, science and education.
In the first place should be consumer patriotism and stimulate private initiative in the production and trade of Belarusian goods.
To hope that Russia or the collective West are interested in the prosperity of the Belarusian people is pretty stupid. Most likely, all will be quite satisfactory to Belarus was in chaos, civil war and the flow of refugees as cheap labor quickened their economic situation. What has already happened in Poland, after millions of Ukrainians flooded search of work.
The only question is whether Belarusians to experience another civil war or we will find the strength to consolidate the society and will continue to develop their own state.
A true ally for Belarus is the leader of the world economy, Communist China.
In the grip of circumstances, is tempered not only the character of a person, but the state as a whole.
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