Judging by the new draft budget, the Russian economy will continue to stagnate, and the authorities seriously begin to prepare for “black days”.
The state Duma will discuss Wednesday in the first reading the draft Federal budget for the years 2020-2022. The next three years will clearly not simple — next year, experts predict the onset of the next global economic crisis, which is unlikely to be spared, and Russia, and in 2021 elections to the state Duma. This means that authorities will have at least how to increase social spending in order to appease the voters. Or at least to try them once again not to irritate.
In pursuit of the votes of the parliamentary party now started to increase the degree of criticism of the government and developed the project budget. Not even “United Russia”, which still obediently vote for any government initiatives, but periodically that is called “showing teeth”.
And now United Russia with the filing of the Chapter of the Duma Committee on budget and taxes Andrey Makarov doubted the reality of some socio-economic indicators embodied in the “three years”. In particular, according to the forecast of inflation, which, as follows from the draft budget should be in 2020 to 3%, while the Central Bank says 4%. Meanwhile, the magnitude of this number depends not only on the size of indexation of pensions and benefits, but also issues related to people’s income.
Claims to budget planning traditionally have “Fair Russia”. “Revolutionaries” claim that the government has again lowered the estimated price of oil, which, he predicted, will not exceed next year’s $ 57 per barrel. This means that the Finance Ministry will continue to fill the “pods” of the national welfare Fund (NWF). If this is still not resolved the question of where to spend 1.5-2 trillion rubles, which will withdraw from the Fund in 2020 in line with “budgetary rule”.
Recall that under this rule, the NWF can be used to develop the socio-economic sphere only if their volume exceeds 7% of GDP. However, earlier the Ministry of Finance was given to understand that they are ready to invest in the country, only 15-20% of the above amount.
Such a policy is particularly irritating deputies from the Communist party, who are unhappy that the government has once again slipped him a “no development budget, and the austerity, the accumulation of cash reserves and expectations of a “black day”. The Communists are convinced that the government of the Russian economy will continue to stand still and it will not be able to withdraw not that the five leading economies of the world as ordered by the President, but to disperse at least to the rate of the global average. Need decisive steps, but the government simply couldn’t be done, say in the Communist party.
Government forecasts are severely criticized in the chamber. Its head Alexey Kudrin believes that Russia’s economy will increase by 2021 to a maximum of 2%, while the government marked the bar of 3.1%. As it turned out, in their calculations of officials came from the expectations of “rapid growth” investment.
In the debate on the draft budget the deputies voiced questions not only on macroeconomic indicators of the budget, but its expenditure. In the state Duma said that overall spending on the social sector in the next three years even a few will increase, but on closer examination it appears that the state remains willing to invest in human capital as a residual. Much more important for the government budget surplus, although it will be reduced by the end of 2022 to 0.2%, then in case of falling oil prices and continuing economic stagnation officials will again have to think about the ends.
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.