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Scientists predict a warm winter in the Arctic

Ученые прогнозируют теплую зиму в АрктикеIn the Arctic regions of Canada, the situation was close to normal.

Winter 2018-2019 in the Arctic will be warmer than usual. Precipitation will be more common, and sea-ice extent, by contrast, will be below normal. This conclusion is contained in the published in Geneva by the world meteorological organization (WMO) the final statement of the second session of its pan-Arctic forum on climate prediction (Pan-Arctic Climate Outlook Forum, PARCOF). She was held October 30, in a virtual forum with the participation of scientists from member countries of the Arctic Council, the indigenous population of the North and shipping companies.

In the document that was the result achieved at the session of the consensus, says that last summer, in most parts of the Arctic have been observed “temperature anomalies above average.” The exceptions were the Arctic regions of Canada and Central Greenland, where it was colder than usual. In Eastern Siberia the temperature reached the highest in the past 69 years values, but in Northern Canada it was only 17th in the list of the highest temperatures.

This winter, say in PARCOF, “the temperature is expected to be above normal.” However, the likelihood that this prediction will become reality differs from region to region. The highest probability (70%) for the Central and Western parts of the Russian Arctic. For Norway and Finland, the probability is 60%, for Alaska and the Eastern regions of Russia – 50% for Greenland and the mainland of Canada – 40%.

The past summer was the driest in 69 years in the area of the Chukchi sea and in the North-West Siberia, whereas in the European North and Arctic regions of Canada, the situation was close to normal or rain fell even a little more than the norm. This winter in Canada and Russia PARCOF predicts precipitation is more abundant than usual – with a probability of 40% and above.

As for the minimum sea-ice extent in the Arctic, then according to this index the summer of 2018 was remarkable (sixth place during systematic observations began in 1979), but the record is not set. In Canada, the extent of sea ice was above normal, and in Eurasia, in particular, in the Barents, Kara and East Siberian seas, the figures were close to the average for the years 1998-2017. In the winter, according to forecasts, the total length will be “below normal” in the Bering sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence and “below, but close to normal” in the Barents, Okhotsk and the Labrador seas.

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