To predict the magnitude of the crisis is impossible, but the scheme of action of our government — you can. They always start with helping your.
Putin is Putin, and the crisis on schedule. The epidemic of coronavirus, the world oil panic and the fall of the ruble merge into one stream. The majority of experts, Russian and international, did not foresee today’s events, but now I’m trying to write what will happen tomorrow.
We also go the less scientific way and try to answer three practical questions. Whether the current misfortune inevitable? How far would you go? And that will make our regime for their citizens?
1. Not going to bring the collapse of the Russian-opechowska agreement and subsequent collapse of the oil to the machinations of Igor Sechin, wants to squeeze the American kancevica, and absent-mindedness of the leader, who is head of “Rosneft” agreed, immersed in more relevant thoughts — on the great amendments, the technique of extending his reign, and other things. All this is purely tactical moments.
The cartel OPEC+Russia-restrictions on the oil trade a few years provided the smooth retreat of its participants of the world energy market and at the same time — calm, mild cheaper oil.
But this spring both became absolutely impossible. Epidemic COVID-19 cool has reduced global demand for fuel. What is fundamentally new. To respond to this novelty, the cartel members could either completely unheard of in their practice by reducing the supply of or cancellation of the agreement and the pricing war among themselves. The second of these modes is much more organic.
In the short term, the collapse of oil to forty, thirty or even twenty dollars gives a clear advantage to the Saudis — with their much more low, than in Russia, production costs and capacities to rapidly increase exports, our producers are missing.
If the battle drags on too long, I predict, who in the end will have worse not taken. Probably, all. Thus if in Moscow I can imagine what cheap oil will bankrupt the shale producers in the US, it’s childhood dreams. They already “ruined” in a similar way four or five years ago and nothing came of it.
When all the upcoming races and market fluctuations, our regime there is no way to return oil and gas prosperity, on which he once grew stiff. The ordinary Russian citizen will do the right thing, if in their worldly plans will be assumed that the fatty years, he’d never see again.
2. If another world recession? This issue is broader than just one recession netizen. They fell in 2014 — 2016, as the recession was just us.
Providing accurate predictions of the astrologers, I can only say that the probability of the global crisis are now higher than at any time in the last decade. The epidemic may well serve as a trigger. The world market panic clear sign of the global crisis is not, but suspicions suggests.
In this case the official opinion of our government and parastatal analysts tending to the fact that the Russian economy to external crises became insensitive. External debt is not so large, hardened sanctions magnates from abroad no longer independent, and the economy with their skills of import substitution is able to continue to stagnate in spite of the world around them.
In short, if you believe the authorities, in the event of a crisis, all activities of the regime will be focused on concern for the common people. Because privileged citizens in some spazzalato simply do not need.
3. This is now checked. The Ministry of Finance made a comforting Declaration. Because, they say, oil prices are “below benchmark”, the Agency prints the national welfare Fund and begins “according to the budgetary rules of the sale of foreign currency on the open market”. Revenue closes budget hole.
And there is tremendous daring promise: “the volume of the liquid funds of the NWF… more than 10.1 trillion rubles (150,1 billion US dollars). These funds are sufficient to cover a shortfall in revenues from falling oil prices to 25-30 dollars per barrel for the past 6-10 years…” That is, the current generation of Russians will live easily at the expense of reserves accumulated in the national welfare Fund.
Get back to earth. The current “fiscal rule” (i.e. a promise to drop to the reserves of the oil revenue), of which with such gravitas reminiscent of the Ministry of Finance, is the fourth in a row. And sometimes in changing the names of reserve funds do accumulate large amounts.
But saved us “fiscal rules” from devaluations? No. Twelve years ago the dollar was worth 23 rubles. But close to the throne of the Corporation and guiding them tycoons in hard days, was always able to scoop up another ten billion dollars of funds, lovingly accumulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank.
Worth to see how varied the international reserves of our country. During the crisis of 2014 they decreased from $510 to $385 billion Where it all goes — you know.
But in 2015 and 2016, the turn came to the people. Oil at that time also was cheap, drove budgets with large deficits, which solemnly declared, was covered with money taken from the former contingency Fund. And hospilality did terrible eyes and explained that when Respond runs out live all of us would be nothing.
Not all noticed one detail. Respond does not exist by itself. He was a part of the international reserves of Russia. And these reserves for 2015 — 2016 was reduced only symbolically, with $385 billion to $378 billion While Respond during this time, and in fact has lost approximately $70 billion, has been depleted almost to zero and abolished by attaching to the Fund.
The trick lay in the fact that foreign currency assets in the national budget to the needs of one does not spent. They were just shifted from one state pocket into another. The Finance Ministry had transferred them to the Central Bank, in return the printing of money, which closed the deficit. The total amount of international reserves, these virtual displacements are not changed.
The moral of the crisis is simple. In 2014, important people were from the reserves to overcome $125 billion And when in 2015 and 2016 came to save ordinary citizens, then they decided not to spend money — and they paid the costs of the crisis through the inflation tax, charged with actually frozen then salaries and pensions.
Is now the boss will do something similar?
In the adopted before the crisis budget-2020 “budget rule”, supposedly limiting rostrata, it was almost a fiction. Yes, oil revenues were supposed to go to FNB. But this expenditure was inflated with each new edit and as a result, a few trillion rubles exceeded the estimated “underlying” balance of income. This internal deficit it was intended to cover through loans and manipulations. That is, with one hand the money would be withdrawn from the budget and save for a rainy day, and the other generously it added to and sent on all sorts of projects, “gauges” and other sudden needs.
Naturally, at the first crisis shakes this whole fiscal structure began to sink. And promises to settle everything, once you start spending savings from the Fund, look solid enough. Especially after the recent sleight of hand with the “consumption” of Respond.
How many “anti-crisis” money from the reserves will now receive tycoons? Really, in contrast to $200 billion in 2008 and $125 billion in 2014 at all? Show me a person who would believe it.
And another question: will cut “people ‘” expenditure of the budget in 2020? Precedents in this century. But without the sequestration, and such, which will limit the bosses ‘ idea, not spending on the needs of ordinary people talking about maintaining living standards, and even long-term — it’s just a bluff.
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