Analysts urged the U.S. and allies to think through the tools needed to protect Ukraine from possible Russian aggression.
The Russian military was well prepared, so without warning to launch a full-scale war in Ukraine and to conduct hybrid war in the Baltic States. This was reported in the study by the research center of the Institute for the Study of War, “the Russian military bearing: order of battle of ground forces”.
In ISW note that neither the leaders of the United States nor the European allies are not ready to such scenario of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
NATO leaders are increasingly warning about the danger of a conventional war against the Baltic States or even Western Europe. However, the Russian ground forces were not placed or reorganized to conduct military action without warning in the region, analysts say. In Baltic countries Russians is ready to host hybrid military intervention like what they did in Ukraine after the Maidan.
For the period from 2014 the Russians have placed and reorganized its forces to be able to quickly implement a mechanized invasion from the North and the East of Ukraine, analysts said.
So, the Kremlin has deployed several units along the Russian-Ukrainian border, but did not on the border of the Baltic States. Near the border with Ukraine there are three mechanized divisions, while in the Baltic region there is only one troop unit, which is not enough for large-scale mechanized invasion.
50 miles (80 km – ed.) from the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin has deployed the army along separate lines of occurrence with a secure rear.
Analysts urged the U.S. and allies to overestimate the likely scenario of Russia’s actions and to review military and non-military tools needed to protect NATO allies and Ukraine from possible Russian aggression.
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