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“Russia will soon begin to lag behind Kazakhstan”

«Скоро Россия начнет отставать от Казахстана»

The Russian economy continues to lag behind the world. Russian rate — below 2%, if not 1.5 percent, of the world — twice. It’s not pleasing anyone, and the President in the first place. Vladimir Putin set the goal: Russia must enter the top five economies in the world on the scale of GDP by 2024. Your key to solving the problem proposed by Anatoly Chubais.

Everything in life changes. Changed and Anatoly Chubais — at least, it follows from his interview with the magazine “Snob”. He clearly faded — it is not “red beast”, not “ardent reformer”, a grizzled and quite a ordinary head of state Corporation.

To this conclusion leads the logic of his reasoning. At first, he still pohramyvaet: “after some time Russia will start to lag behind Greece, Kazakhstan and Turkey. Not on the scale of the economy and standard of living. On human capital, culture, education, health — all these components ourselves at risk, “put” yourself in a scenario that leads to the growth of the backlog of Russia from the rest of the world.”

 

But then, instead of a call to “change the world”, which could be expected from Chubais, as Lenin learned the well-known thesis of the young Karl Marx, should be the reliance on what is, with the changes that are revolutionary not called.

There is, incidentally, a curious intermediate lead. Chubais mentions Kazakhstan as the dark future of Russia. But the experience of this country, when it comes to more specific tasks differently drawn, for example, Vladislav Inozemtsev. He believes that Kazakhstan could become an important transit point for Chinese investment in Russia, which are creating companies in the international financial center in Astana, would thereby to insure itself from the spillover of U.S. stocks. Their Beijing clearly wants to avoid. It turns out, Kazakhstan Kazakhstan — hatred.

But back to the logic of Chubais. The economy itself — then he remembers of Baron Munchausen — will not pull out. We need political solutions. But what? Pension reform “is essential, but by itself the acceleration in growth it will not. In it, there can be motivational component”. Maybe we need tax reform? “This is simply not necessary, we have a workable tax system. And maybe, to reform the corporate or Antimonopoly law? Will not help. Why? Because in these areas there is a resource for improvements, but a radical increase he will not give. In the country to date has developed a very holistic economic-political system. It closely links economic policy and “political” policy, very closely integrates politics within the country and foreign policy. In such a situation, to take only one Economics and to come up with some kind of tricky maneuver, through which it blows, it is impossible.”

“Structural reforms,” ay! Once the current “very holistic economic-political system” working — bearded Soviet joke about the plumber, the pipes and the “whole system” is not about her. Then where is “the Golden key”?..

It turns out that for innovative breakthrough, where, as taught by the experience of South Korea and China, democracy is not required, only need something to debug, a “financial industry”. And to put it simply is to allow pension funds to invest 3.5 trillion rubles in innovations. Well, then you should dive into the fascinating world of nanotechnology, where the calls (who would doubt!) “much bigger than in the sphere of information or intellectual”.

It would be interesting to hear Chubais, if the bureaucratic will of fate, he headed not for RUSNANO, and say, “assistance” or even “Rosneft”. Although in any case, as much as the promise of two “VOLG” for voucher privatization, still wouldn’t work.

Chubais Chubais, but solving the problem of withdrawal of Russia in the top five economies in the world yet. If we measure GDP in dollars, then, according to IMF’s calculations, over the past 10 years, the size of the economy not only grew, but shrank about 11%, from $1.78 trillion in 2008 to $1.58 trillion in 2018. During the same decade, the global economy increased 33%, the US economy is about 40%, and China’s GDP soared almost threefold. Here and Munchausen is unlikely to help.

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