As recently stated by the head of the Ministry of economic development Maxim Oreshkin, subordinate Agency retains its forecast for growth domestic GDP by the end of 2019 at 1.3%. Despite the fact that the figure in the first quarter of 2019, according to the published 17 may to Rosstat, amounted to an annualized 0.5 percent (of -0.3% compared to expectations of economic development), the Minister added that there is no recession in the second half of the year in our economy are not expected.
However, the head of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin on may 27 announced its forecast regarding the growth of domestic GDP by the end of 2019. And he was more pessimistic.
“I’m at the end of last year when approving the budget talked about my grades meet the goal of economic growth. The official purpose was 1.3%, and I’ve always said that it will be about 1% or below. I maintain my prediction. Well, that is it will be positive but below 1%”, — quotes his words, in particular, TASS.
In General, it’s his style, the head of the chamber always gives more pessimistic forecasts, in contrast, say, or Rosstat, Ministry of economic development, — explained the correspondent of “SP” analyst group FINAM Alexey Korenev, But in this case, I think he’s right. For one simple reason — in recent years, Russia’s economy showed weak growth of GDP. The results of last year 2.3% we will leave on conscience of Rosstat, which he took and scored the Record for one year all that would have to be spread out over several years.
In principle, our economy, for all its export orientation and structural features, is not able to develop at a faster pace than a half percent per year. This is our estimated ceiling for the current economic situation. And then, assuming that all will be well, but rather, is a maximum and positive for us — part of the sanctions, we assume, will be removed and the price of oil goes up, we can grow by 1.3%. But what about “all is well” does not work.
Sanctions is unlikely to take off, oil prices, though increased at the end of last year, not the fact that will keep at this level. And, of course, markedly increased the tax burden on citizens and businesses has led to shrinking consumer demand and is already affecting production.
Yes, acknowledged Alexey Korenev, during crises, the Russian economy went in the negative zone of growth of GDP. But the fact is that crisis — the phenomenon short-term, everything collapses, but after about six months recovering. Russia is in a state of stagnation, sluggish, so that it is now extremely important every tenth of a percent. Because the crisis in our country after the 2014 adopted the so-called L-shaped: after the fall a movement began, not up and sideways, while all other economies of the world go forward.
To push the GDP growth rate above the level of 1% or the implementation of some major investment projects or increase in budget expenses. Or, alternatively, a sharp acceleration in consumer demand. This has already been observed in 2014, when citizens trying to rescue their savings, began feverishly to buy cars, appliances and so forth, continues the theme of the main analyst of Bank “Solidarity” Alexander Abramov — But even if we get similar statistical effect at the end of the year, he will not speak about our successes in the economy, and become just a reflection of some one-off factors.
In order to raise the GDP growth rate significantly above 1%, we have to completely reformat and refocus our industry. In addition, another possibility lies in the political arena — we need to reach some agreements with other countries, particularly Turkey, India and China, relative to the markets, which began to close. In the context of such protectionism would be difficult for us to stay at 1% GDP growth.
And really, as “SP” reported earlier, some experts believe that an increase in GDP growth by 1% by the end of 2019 it is time to compare the feat against all odds.
— God grant, that at the end of 2019 GDP growth actually showed the growth at least 1%, — the expert-economist Leonid Khazanov. — Because I personally no prerequisites for this do not see. The economic crisis in Russia continues. We have a big problem in industry, in construction, and indeed everywhere. We see how disgracefully low wages for workers. How can there be GDP growth?
“SP”: — That is, you believe that GDP growth will not be at all?
Yes. Okay, if it will be zero. But I fear that he will ever go negative on average at 1-3%. Because over the last few years has adopted a number of decisions that lead to the fact that we had not economic recovery, but the crisis.
“SP”: — What is the solution?
— First, is the tax burden, the constant tightening pressure on the business. Second, the increase in the retirement age — not the best solution, increasing unemployment. New businesses open, but they are very few for such a huge country. Plus our economy is very much “salesdestiny”, huge corporations strangling small business. For example, I was recently in Crimea, where local residents complain almost without exception — small business all completely bent, which was not even in the Ukraine.
Besides, our economy is sorely lacking new large projects. We had, for example, “Nord stream-2”, the Crimean bridge, which gave at least some indicators in some sectors. Now we have nothing.
“SP”: — And 200-billion project for the construction of the port in the Kaliningrad region, supported by Vladimir Putin?
— This is a good project, but for our economy it is unlikely to make the weather. This requires at least a dozen such projects. We need to do something in the Northern latitudes to extend the BAM and so on. Then it would give some impetus.
“SP”: — Is there any, even the most insignificant sector of the economy, where in the near future?
Absolutely nothing, except oil and gas complex. Only there is still some movement, there are projects of creation of new complexes. For example, “SIBUR”, “Gazprom”, “LUKOIL” plans to implement projects on creation of gas chemical production in some regions of Russia and PhosAgro has embarked on a multibillion-dollar construction project is actually a new plant for the production of phosphate fertilizers on the basis of the company “Metakhim” in the Leningrad region.
If we take engineering, metallurgy, and other areas — nothing extraordinary, I was not watching. In General, people have such strong pessimism, which I have not seen even in the nineties. People just don’t know how to live.
The exit from this critical situation, said Vice-President of Russian public organization “Business Russia” Nikolay Ostarkov, prevent the old economic paradigm of the 60-ies of the last century, which still hurts Russia.
In this paradigm, which we think, stressed the expert, has long no one thinks. But as at the time we had specific Marxism, and now we have our own, supposedly a market economy. Even expressed from time to time some real decisions is simply not perceived, as they look too exotic for the current system. Even if we at some point were going in the right direction, as, for example, in a situation with a mortgage, still included a kind of “virus program” with some “evil hand”, all unfolding in the opposite direction.
The whole world has already reviewed this paradigm, — summed up Mykola Ostarkov, — rejected all these old canons, for which we are trying to do something, and went forward by leaps and bounds. So did the U.S. so did Japan, so did Europe. All countries have mastered financial technology, going to another formation, which relies on the mortgage, project and venture financing.
The major component of all economies jerked forward emission pumping. The fate of those economies that are afraid, do not know how or do not want to use it unenviable to act as a donor for everyone else.
“Russia somehow got it in this series, and it seem to like it”, — stated the expert.
© 2019, z-news.link. All rights reserved.