The unprecedented growth of the Chinese economy after a rapid rise a little slower. Liberal economists scare, saying that it may significantly hit Russia, which is one of the main trade partners of China. In fact, there is nothing to fear, say experts “the Free press”.
Trump is too early to celebrate the victory over the Beijing
Published by the National Bureau of statistics of China economic data for 2018 instilled in many experts ‘ concern. Last year, the national economy (GDP) of China grew, according to preliminary data, by 6.6% – the lowest figure since the early nineties (in 1990, when the country was led by Jan shankun, the GDP grew by only 3.9%).
Then the indices varied, and in the middle of the “zero” years (2003 to 2007) were measured in the double digits. Against this background, of course, the current indicator seems to be very modest. Although it is much higher than, say, the growth of the global GDP (3.8% in 2018) and especially the Russian (anecdotal 1.7 percent).
Of course, it is not in numbers — statistics only state that the largest economy of the planet, the overly “hot” from super growth, is starting to “cool off”. Affects a huge number of factors that Chinese (and Western) economists have yet to evaluate. To implement active tools, would allow in 2019 to avert a further economic slowdown: is the offset of the structure of aggregate demand towards household consumption, business investment and more selective investment in infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the American President Donald trump certainly one of its merits sincerely would like to bring waged with China last year, a trade war. But the first round they unleashed the war trump has lost. According to Chinese government, the U.S. sanctions particularly significant damage is not produced: the trade surplus of China and the United States last year reached a record $ 323 billion. And trade balance will continue to grow.
The Americans are pushing China and Russia into each other’s arms
Us sanctions only spur Beijing to tighten economic and political measures. In particular, within just 2018, the two countries held talks on the introduction of import and export payments through yuan and rubles — as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. In November there was even information that completed negotiations on cross-border use of national payment systems: the Chinese credit card Pay you can use it would be in Russia, and the Russian card “the World” in China.
In bilateral trade Russia and China about 14% of the payments already carried out in RMB, and about 7-8% in rubles, according to the Ministry of Finance. The Russian Central Bank is also actively buying up the yuan for the replenishment of foreign exchange reserves, and by the end of 2018, the Chinese yuan became the fourth largest component of reserves of the Central Bank after the Euro (32%), US dollar (22%) and gold (17%).
Amid growing relationship of the Russian and the Chinese economy cooling and the last concern of local economists. Some (mainly from the liberal camp) and is sounding the alarm: because, they say, the Chinese are among the largest buyers of Russian mineral raw materials (primarily, of course, hydrocarbons), the reduction in export demand will cause a chain reaction that will hit the economy of Russia.
Meanwhile, by the way, Western experts such pessimism about the prospects of the Russian economy do not share. For example, the influential the Economist magazine predicts the growth of the Japanese GRP 1.4%, Western Europe — 1.7% (in Germany that considers itself the “engine” of the European Union to 1.8%), and Russian — at the level of 1.8%.
As the Economist believes, that the largest developing countries are beginning to restore the economy after recession: Russia after the fall in oil prices, Brazil — after political uncertainty, and India after the reforms, Narendra Mori, aimed at combating the black market.
So should we trust the apocalyptic predictions about the effects of a cooling Chinese economy on Russia? This question SP asked our regular experts.
China’s problems on Russia affect small
Senior researcher, Center for comprehensive European and international studies Higher school of Economics (HSE), Vasily Kashin:
— We like the extremes, either all good or a living hell! Hence at the slightest problem, a monstrous wave of pessimism. So in this case. If the growth of China’s economy is slowing, us is reflected in only one way — through the fall in oil prices. However, to assess how exactly is a Chinese “slowdown” will affect the oil market, it is impossible. There is still the factors of other players — Venezuela, Iran and others.
Plus, the Russian government ended last year with a large budget surplus, had an unpopular pension reform and increased VAT. So that any immediate serious consequences for the economy and the budget to be, in my opinion, should not.
Senior researcher Institute for economic policy Sergey Zhavoronkov:
— The Chinese authorities are overstrained economy of large-scale expenditure projects (from the military to the idea of going in the next few years on public pension provision, but all the listed factors specifically threatened by Russia little.
China is 15% of our exports in the first half of 2018, and almost exclusively oil-oil-gas-coal (67%) and wood (10%). Even if a little slowing of China’s economy will be less to consume, in this commodity group the cheaper options from China no, they are likely to cut purchases of the same coal in Australia and Indonesia.
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