Russia continues to rapidly roll into a demographic abyss. In January-August, the natural population decline was accelerated by 30%, said on Thursday Rosstat.
For 8 months, were born in the country 994,3 thousands of people have died – 1,213 million. Although mortality was reduced (by 33.7 thousand people), the pace of fertility decline was higher in 2.5 times (83.9 thousand people).
In the whole country the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1.2 times; in 32 regions this difference reached 1.5-2.1 times.
Due to attrition, the country for 8 months lost 219,2 thousand people – 50, 1 thousand more than in the same period last year. As a result, annual population projection of the government under which natural decrease had stabilized (at the level of 219 thousand) was exceeded by the beginning of September.
This forced the Ministry of economic development to worsen the prognosis. The new MAYOR, the rate of extinction of the population this year will be a record since 2008 – 284,4 thousand people. A higher Russian statistics recorded only in the period since the mid-1990s to mid-2000s when the annual mortality rate exceeded the birth rate by 500-600 thousand people.
The migrant influx this year has doubled, to of 166.7 thousand people, according to Rosstat. But to offset the natural decline it completely failed. As a result, over 8 months, the total population decreased by 55.2 thousand people (146,7 million).
Continue to die 69 of the 85 subjects of the Russian Federation. In each of the ninth, the situation is close to complete demographic disaster: 10 regions over the period 1989 to 2017 lost more than 20% of the population.
The population in Murmansk region decreased by 34%, Sakhalin – 31%, Arkhangelsk – 26%, Pskov – 24%, in Amur – 24%, Kirov – 24%, in Ivanovo – 22%, Tver – 22% Tambov 21%, Kostroma – 20%, Smolensk – 18%, Vladimir – 16%, Ryazan – 16%, in Orel – 15%, Yaroslavl – 14%, wrote earlier, the head of capital markets IMEMO Yakov Mirkin.
In conditions when the prospects do not exist, nearly 20 million people live below the poverty line, and one in three has an income below 15 thousand rubles, people tend not to have children, despite the appeals of the breed, which was joined by officials from the President down.
Key indicator birth rate – the ratio of births of first children per woman continues to decline, and by the end of 2018, its value is 0,66 children per woman was the lowest in 20 years, says the Director of the Institute for social analysis and forecasting (INCAP) Ranepa Tatiana Maleva.
Simultaneously decreases the ratio of births of the second child. Increasing fertility only in large families: coefficients of third and subsequent births in 2018 increased from 0.31 to 0.33 of a child not a woman.
People postpone the birth of the firstborn, and therefore no reason to expect in Russia a universal model of the family “with at least one child” becomes smaller, said Maleva: “the basis of the dynamics of fertility can lie two fundamental factors. The first births affected by economic recession, including the decline in real incomes in 2014 and, possibly, a change of generations in the ages of maximum reproductive activity.”
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