Raiffeisenbank analysts predict that by the end of 2018, the dollar could exceed psychological mark of 70 rubles, even with oil prices at $ 70 per barrel and the absence of operations of the Ministry of Finance for procurement of the currency, RBC.
According to a review of the Bank, while maintaining the current level of oil prices and national currency rate balance (difference between receipts and expenditure) current account in November and December will be $ 12.5 billion. This amount will be insufficient to pay the external debt in the amount of $ 14.3 billion.
In order to mitigate the shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, the Federal Treasury from December 8 launches at the Moscow exchange currency swap transaction. This operation is an exchange of currency with the obligation of committing to a specific date, the reverse exchange of the same currencies.
Raiffeisenbank experts remind that the balance of the current account in October was 12.1 billion dollars, while the capital outflow in the same month, reached a record level and exceeded $ 10 billion.
“Given that such a large balance in current account (two consecutive months) did not lead to the strengthening of the ruble (although the purchase of foreign currency by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is not carried out), it can be concluded that the export of capital was not due to the increase in foreign currency assets by banks and other factors,” the review says.
In September, the Central Bank refused to purchase currency on the open market until the end of the year because of too strong jumps of the ruble — purchase of foreign currency creates a demand for it and further weakening the ruble. Instead, the Central Bank provides the Finance Ministry foreign currency from its reserves.
Previously chief economist and Deputy head of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach said that the ruble in 2019 may be very weak under the influence of current and expected anti-Russian sanctions.
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