GDP growth in Russia in 2018 was accelerated to 2.3% from 1.6% a year earlier, according to “Vedomosti”, citing Rosstat.
Such economic growth — the highest since 2012 and is significantly above the expectations of economic development. The Ministry of economic development had forecast the growth rate above 2% only in 2021, after accelerating growth in capital investment in 2020 to 7.6% from 3.1% a year earlier. The Central Bank predicted in 2018, the economy growth on 1,5–2%.
Judging by the Rosstat data, the value added in construction in 2018 rose by 4.7% on the previous year. In addition to the construction, the rapidly increased value added in mining and in the sector of public administration, military security and welfare, 3.8% and 3.5% relative to 2017, respectively. Value added in wholesale and retail trade increased by 2.2%, in financial and insurance activities — by 6.3%.
Recall that in late January, analysts were confused by the latest figures from Rosstat. According to the audit Agency, for the 2018 construction grew by 5.3%, while for the period from January to November, growth was estimated only 0.5%. The scope of work has increased dramatically in early 2018, then the dynamics are back to zero, said “Kommersant”. “Such “adjustments” can’t explain something meaningful. Like some statistical tricks” — said the publication of the expert of the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF) Igor Polyakov. Analysts have been trying different methods to simulate the results of Rosstat, but are unable to explain them.
Experts surprised implausible positive Rosstat data
Without waiting for details from Rosstat, Ministry of economy stated that the revision of the data by construction allowed us to estimate the growth of GDP by the end of 2018 at 2% instead of 1.8% that was expected earlier. Experts believe that these figures can also be misleading. The unexpectedly high GDP growth rates do not correspond to the economic situation of Russians. According to CMASF, real incomes fall for the fifth consecutive year. Such a long and continuous “impoverishment of the population was not even in the’ 90s,” said former head of Department of forecasting of the economy Ministry Kirill Tremasov.
Earlier edition of “the Project” estimated that Rosstat data on emigration from Russia was reduced at least six times.
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