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Rocket of contention: US tease the Kremlin is one step closer to the exit from the INF Treaty

Ракета раздора: США дразнят Кремль — еще на шаг ближе к выходу из ДРСМД

The deadline of the ultimatum, announced on December 4, 2018, US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who took Russia 60 days to return to compliance with the Treaty on the reduction of intermediate-and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty). Earlier, in October last year, President Donald trump announced the US intention to withdraw from the Treaty and, specifically, to start developing new weapons.

The reason he called “took place to be” breach of contract on the part of Moscow. “Discord missile” was a cruise missile, better known now under the index 9М729 “Innovator” (original development of R-500, where “five hundred” is either the mass of the warhead in kilograms, or distance in km). According to the Americans its modified version is able to deliver a payload, including nuclear stuffing 5,500 miles.

The gauntlet trump was adopted by Putin — the Russian President immediately declared readiness to respond to the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Like, “want to be compared to missiles — so we’re ready.” While the Russian foreign Ministry called the possible exit of Washington from the Treaty of “world catastrophe.” Panic in Europe, where the Americans plan to put more long-range missiles (in Poland and Romania already have launchers that can launch cruise “Tomahawk”, which can fly up to the Urals). Thinking about the consequences, “missile shooting” and the UN, realizing that the thin line between peace and war can be broken overnight. Moscow has offered to sit down at the negotiating table in order to remove the differences — and this is a logical way to resolve differences.

The first pancake came out lumpy — the United States was disappointed with the outcome of the meeting with Russia on the INF Treaty, which took place on 15 January 2019 at Geneva. Under Secretary for arms control and international security Andrea Thompson concluded: “the Meeting was disappointing, because it is clear that Russia continues to violate the contract and was not willing to explain how she plans to return to its full and verifiable implementation.” In turn, the Russian representative to this meeting, Deputy foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the US demands full and verifiable destruction of missiles 9М729 unacceptable. According to him, during the consultations, the Russian side proposed specific measures for the rocket that would completely remove any assumption from the American side on its conformity to the requirements of the contract. He stressed that Moscow is ready for such measures only if the counter of the openness of Americans to relieve our concerns.

In General, we assume that the result of the meeting was zero. Each of the parties have not raised the visor for full disclosure. There is a reason to think about their future performance. USA to the conversation in Geneva “missiles” were not ready, with only the installation of Russia to impose its conditions, the main of which — the destruction of missiles, which they considered potentially dangerous. It is obvious that withdrawal from the INF Treaty for Washington, the question is practically settled, but the condition of guilt of the opponent. But Russia is not Iran, with which the tramp took and withdrew from the nuclear deal, saying that it was “done” without going into further explanation. To withdraw from the Treaty on the reduction of intermediate-range and shorter-range with the sight of the world community is not so easy. There need weighty arguments. One of which was a cruise missile invented 9М729.

The arguments that Russia strictly fulfils the contract, and the US exacerbate the situation, not wanting to reckon with the claims of Moscow, in Washington simply do not hear. How not to hear and explanation of the evils withdrawal from the Treaty, which can lead to undesirable consequences. And the concern of Europe with the revival of the arms race and, as a consequence, the increasing threat of use of missiles on its territory, the United States is deeply indifferent, that is, indifferent. Russian President Vladimir Putin in an interview to the Serbian editions of “Politika” and “Evening news” called “our Western colleagues to abandon the methods of blackmail, threats and provocations” and to respect international law.

— It is obvious that the consequences of such a policy would be extremely grave. Of course, we are not going to close eye on the deployment of American missiles that pose a direct threat to our security. Will have to take effective countermeasures, — concluded Putin.

Rise above the fray. That, in fact, assumed the INF Treaty between 8 December 1987, signed by the General Secretary of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan?. The parties undertook to destroy all systems of ballistic and cruise missiles, ground-based medium (1000−5500km) and lower (from 500 to 1000 km) range. That is a small range missiles should not exceed 500 kilometers, the average -5 000. These conditions are to a certain extent from time to time was observed, however, in unfair proportions. We destroyed 1846 missiles, they 846. Of course, that each party quietly continued to development in field of improvement of weapons, including the range of their application.

The Americans suspected that a new Russian missile is an improved version of the Soviet s-10 Granat, the range of which is up to thousands of kilometers, and the new version can hit targets up to 5 500 km. Maybe that’s it. And one mean cruise missile 9М729 are two completely different systems, one of which can be attributed to small, and the second to the middle. So technically the contract is not broken and fits in the designated mileage. Americans panicked because of the fact that a small range turned into the average of what they didn’t expect and lost the possibility of missile strikes from Europe, and it is no VOD on the map odometer, in any case, more than 500 kilometers.

The Americans, as they say, are not born yesterday, and, as already reported by the “Free press” of the test missiles with range of up to 5 thousand kilometers, calling them a “target missile” designed, ostensibly, for development and testing of a global missile defense system. The “target” (Hera, MRT, Aries, LV-2, Storm, Storm 2, MRBM) simulate a broad range ballistic missiles, medium-range and shorter-range. When considering such missiles are universal accelerator tools, which depending on the equipment installed on these head parts can be used as military ballistic missiles. Development and testing of such missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads at ranges exceeding the limits the Treaty created a precedent bypass the INF Treaty. Or take already standing on the armament of U.S. army heavy combat drones such as the MQ-1B Predator and MQ-9A Reaper, which has more than 3 thousand. Their contractual status is not solved, but they technically fall under the INF Treaty, the term “cruise missile ground-based”.

— Casuistry in mutual Russian-American claims under the Treaty on the reduction of intermediate-range missiles is different and more resourcefulness in the presented arguments, — the Director of the Center for analysis of strategies technologies Ruslan Pukhov. — Russia says its missile 9М727 does not violate the terms of the contract, as originally developed and created under the agreement and does not exceed the range of 500 kilometers. A new variant of the upgraded missile probably has a much greater range, but neither its application nor proven features never given. Why Americans clung for it and so insistently demand the destruction of these missiles? There’s a caveat — as the launcher for the “Innovator” used “Iskander-M” in the case of at least one of start, you can already require destruction and all the “Iskander”, which is the Russian weapon of deterrence. That is, the Americans are trying to disarm the entire Russian army.

For its part, the United States, to put it mildly, lie about their own plans to deploy missiles in excess of the agreements range. And speaking about the readiness of creation of new missile systems in the event of withdrawal from the INF Treaty, trump knows that they already exist and the question of their delivery to Europe is only a matter of time. It is unlikely the parties will come to a reasonable compromise on the destruction of its prohibited missiles and their places of accommodation, after all, and with that, and on the other hand it’s already loaded. Likely that itself is a contract, which for more than thirty years, is outdated, considering the new threats requires new writing and interpretation. Another thing is how Russia and the United States is ready for such a step.

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