‘Recession shock coming,’ major US bank warns

The macroeconomic picture is deteriorating rapidly and could push the US economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to tame surging inflation, Bank of America (BofA) warned on Friday.

“Inflation shock worsening, rates shock just beginning, recession shock coming,” BofA’s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, wrote in a weekly note to clients, seen by Reuters. He added that in this context, cash, volatility, commodities and cryptocurrencies could outperform bonds and stocks.

Earlier this week, JPMorgan’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, said in his annual letter to shareholders that the combination of inflation, the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia may “dramatically increase risks ahead” for the US. He has warned of unpredictable consequences for the nation’s economy.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve laid out its plan to reduce its balance sheet, while also discussing the pace of upcoming interest rate hikes, as it confronts inflation running at a four-decade high. Investors expect the regulator to hike its key interest rate by 50 basis points at its next meeting in early May.

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