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Pressure

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Russia’s Central Bank began sending letters of recommendation for smaller banks, which offers to prepare for the possible shutdown of the banking system from SWIFT. The big banks, apparently, have long informed and take action.

Yesterday the special representative of the President of the United States, Walker called off from the SWIFT system “nuclear option” and suggested that this measure will be introduced in exceptional cases. However, it is also possible the option to disconnect one or two major Russian systemically important banks as, on the one hand, on the other — the West to assess the prospects of a complete shutdown. By the way, Gref, not so long ago, did not rule out the possibility that early next year this kind of event will be held.

The confrontation between Russia and the West is gradually becoming increasingly acute phase. The US meanwhile is preparing to send in the Black sea warships. In the Russian Federation Council a few optimistic assumed it was all just saber rattling, but the capabilities of the American Navy are such that he is quite able to proceed to permanent duty in the Black sea, only occasionally swiping the rotation of ships, as stipulated by the Montreux Convention, limiting the duration of stay of warships of States not having direct access to the Black sea.

The presence of us warships on a permanent basis to deliver a number of difficulties in front of the Kremlin: first, Americans can start escorting ships passing in the sea of Azov, and secondly, the very presence of the U.S. Navy will mean control over the Turkish stream. If you consider that Americans indirectly exercise this control through its military presence in Syria, it will be with a higher degree of reliability to start talking about what the clouds over the Kremlin project gathering. Ahead of the conclusion of agreements on gas supplies via Turkish stream and the threats to transit will inevitably be reflected in increased rates of insurance, and thus on the final price of gas. Nord stream-2 scenario is similar to the statement of the commander of the Second fleet Admiral Lewis about the possibility of blocking Kaliningrad, if necessary, means everything else and the growth of the risks of gas transportation on the routes of both the Northern streams.

The American goal is to significantly increase any risks for the transportation routes of competing flows, making them attractive minimum compared to us gas down to unacceptable. What could be better sharply increased military risks and threats to the normal payments for products? In this regard, all the actions of the US are deeply thought out and strictly rational. War as a fist fight in the alley they are not interested in, it is important to a particular economic result.

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